-
Hit and then...?
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Sep 10 21:55:25 2021
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
badgolferman@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 13 17:59:36 2021
Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
I feel like your quiz title is trying to lead us into the wrong answer.
Perhaps the bot won't hit but I will. 18/12* 5/4. It seems my only
chance is to hope O enters and stays on the 1-point thus running out of
plays before crunching his board.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
badgolferman on Mon Sep 13 13:33:42 2021
On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 6:59:37 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:
Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
I feel like your quiz title is trying to lead us into the wrong answer. Perhaps the bot won't hit but I will. 18/12* 5/4. It seems my only
chance is to hope O enters and stays on the 1-point thus running out of
plays before crunching his board.
Tim can be a bit tricky with his titles but not this time.
We were extremely lucky to get a hitting number and we absolutely must hit.
But the decision of how to play the ace does really matter (hence the quiz). This time, Tim really did mean what he said.
The natural way to play these positions is 2/1 so that, even if we get hit, the opponent is rather trapped.
18/12* 2/1 for me.
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Sep 16 00:33:03 2021
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
The cube location makes a big difference here. With cube access,
X is looking to cash next turn. 5/4 is a higher-variance play;
it makes the good sequences better and the bad sequences worse,
and in particular if O rolls a 2 then she will be too good. X just
needs his good sequences to be good enough to cash, and 2/1
accomplishes that, while avoiding giving O rolls that leave her
too good.
With the cube turned (or at DMP), the more aggressive 5/4 is XG's
preference.
Note also that if the Jacoby rule were in force, then X wouldn't
have to worry about O being too good, and XG favors the somewhat unusual-looking 18/12*/11. I haven't tried to figure out why XG
prefers this over 18/12* 5/4.
1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.260
Player: 60.28% (G:12.29% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 39.72% (G:19.99% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.257..+0.263) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.178 (-0.082)
Player: 62.47% (G:16.78% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 37.53% (G:25.37% B:1.29%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.172..+0.183) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
--------------------
With the cube turned
--------------------
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.130
Player: 63.28% (G:16.16% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 36.72% (G:25.20% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.125..+0.136) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/12* eq:+0.032 (-0.098)
Player: 60.22% (G:14.74% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 39.78% (G:26.65% B:1.35%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.027..+0.038) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 18/12* 12/11 eq:+0.012 (-0.119)
Player: 59.39% (G:14.31% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 40.61% (G:26.58% B:1.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.006..+0.018) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.009 (-0.121)
Player: 60.71% (G:11.50% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 39.29% (G:20.13% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.004..+0.014) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
------
Jacoby
------
XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:16:0:0:1:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 16
1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 12/11 eq:+0.373
Player: 58.28% (G:14.99% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 41.72% (G:27.02% B:1.19%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.367..+0.378) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.333 (-0.039)
Player: 62.79% (G:15.02% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 37.21% (G:24.15% B:1.09%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (+0.333..+0.333) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/12* eq:+0.333 (-0.039)
Player: 59.16% (G:14.07% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:26.12% B:1.09%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (+0.333..+0.333) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.287 (-0.085)
Player: 59.85% (G:11.77% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:19.68% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.285..+0.289) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Oct 31 18:56:06 2021
XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O X X |
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X | | X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Mon Nov 1 13:28:53 2021
On 10/31/2021 6:56 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O X X |
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X | | X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
X doesn't have the timing for a backgame even after making the second
anchor so I'll run off the 23 point. If we're not playing a backgame we
need to get that guy out of there at some point and escaping with tempo
seems like the right plan. Moving on to the eleven point looks playable,
but I prefer to run.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
badgolferman@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 2 14:17:48 2021
Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O X X |
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X | | X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
Let's play 20/14*/11.
By bringing the spare checker down to the outer board I have a better
chance of making a close anchor to my home board. O would be hesitant
to hit from the 10-point as well.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Nov 7 23:20:15 2021
XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O X X |
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X | | X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
This isn't a backgame, and X should be worry more about getting
primed than about getting hit.
1. Rollout¹ 23/14* eq:-0.526
Player: 38.45% (G:8.02% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 61.55% (G:19.82% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.536..-0.516) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/14* 14/11 eq:-0.605 (-0.079)
Player: 36.58% (G:7.58% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 63.42% (G:20.69% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.617..-0.594) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 20/14* 7/4 eq:-0.616 (-0.090)
Player: 37.69% (G:7.70% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 62.31% (G:24.76% B:1.14%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.627..-0.605) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Jan 18 10:09:11 2022
XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Jan 20 09:40:47 2022
XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52
I didn't see a compelling reason to leave any return shots, and played 13/11*/6. However, 13/11* 13/8 gives O only 3 out of 36 rolls to hit
back, and gives X much better priming opportunities.
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/11* eq:+0.401
Player: 68.35% (G:22.04% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 31.65% (G:6.20% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.393..+0.410) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 11/6 eq:+0.309 (-0.093)
Player: 64.18% (G:23.57% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 35.82% (G:6.80% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.301..+0.317) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun May 1 20:03:09 2022
XGID=-b--BaE-BA--cC---a-dbBb---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue May 3 09:47:28 2022
XGID=-b--BaE-BA--cC---a-dbBb---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
Despite the subject line, one really should consider the non-hitting
play 9/8 6/4. However, XG does hit. After 6/5*, I played 13/11,
and was surprised that XG wanted to play 5/3 instead. Apparently,
XG judges both 6/5* 13/11 and 6/5* 6/4 to be too loose, given O's
decent board and X's poor structure.
1. Rollout¹ 6/5* 5/3 eq:+0.266
Player: 55.81% (G:18.90% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 44.19% (G:12.92% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.257..+0.275) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/8 6/4 eq:+0.214 (-0.052)
Player: 55.25% (G:13.75% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.75% (G:10.06% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.207..+0.220) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/5* eq:+0.205 (-0.061)
Player: 54.82% (G:18.89% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 45.18% (G:15.96% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.196..+0.213) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/5* eq:+0.200 (-0.066)
Player: 54.23% (G:17.54% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 45.77% (G:13.39% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.192..+0.208) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Aug 3 08:16:54 2022
XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 3 19:18:00 2022
On 8/3/2022 8:16 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
Or just quietly make he bar point and be ahead in the race with both
runners escaped while she still has a checker on the ace point.
I'd expect that to be not much difference equity wise vs hitting and
running either back checker. And the bot play may be to slot the five
point, but I'll just make the defensive bar point here.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Aug 5 08:32:18 2022
XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
Congrats to ah_clem for avoiding the trap in the subject line.
Even in the variant below, XG prefers to anchor.
1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.301
Player: 57.36% (G:10.84% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 42.64% (G:6.39% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.290..+0.311) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.127 (-0.174)
Player: 53.41% (G:14.63% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 46.59% (G:13.45% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.112..+0.142) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/11* eq:+0.093 (-0.208)
Player: 52.95% (G:13.01% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 47.05% (G:13.47% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.080..+0.106) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dA--bA-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.305
Player: 57.50% (G:12.22% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 42.50% (G:6.46% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.292..+0.318) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.273 (-0.032)
Player: 57.42% (G:15.83% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 42.58% (G:12.94% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.260..+0.287) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Aug 24 07:49:13 2022
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
badgolferman@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 24 13:08:27 2022
Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
---
Tim Chow
I don't see any real advantage in hitting.13/11, 24/23.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 24 10:45:23 2022
On 8/24/2022 7:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
Splitting is the obvious play after the hit. QF says otherwise, but I
don't do QF, so 24/23 6/4*
Perhaps the post with the rollout will explain why some other play is
better.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
badgolferman on Wed Aug 24 10:48:30 2022
On 8/24/2022 9:08 AM, badgolferman wrote:
Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
I don't see any real advantage in hitting.13/11, 24/23.
For opening replies it's correct to hit loose on the four or five point
unless there's something clearly better like hitting outside the
homeboard or playing one of the "naturals".
Does the fact that O has a second homeboard point make the difference?
Not sure, but might learn something here. The split certainly looks
playable.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Aug 26 09:51:22 2022
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
Whether to lift the blot on the 4pt seems to be subtle decision.
I chose to lift, but XG says that's a mistake. But for comparison,
see the variant below.
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/4* eq:-0.246
Player: 44.52% (G:13.47% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 55.48% (G:19.69% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.261..-0.230) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.317 (-0.072)
Player: 42.78% (G:13.09% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 57.22% (G:18.89% B:1.09%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.333..-0.301) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE-a-b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/4* eq:-0.276
Player: 44.24% (G:13.07% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:19.45% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.287..-0.266) - [51.2%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.277
Player: 43.60% (G:12.97% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 56.40% (G:18.77% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.287..-0.266) - [48.8%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Oct 15 11:22:51 2022
XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah...Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sat Oct 15 13:13:29 2022
On 10/15/2022 11:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O | | X O | | O | | X | | O | | | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X | | O | | X | | O X | | X | | O X | | X | | O X O | | X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
Ahead in the race, so making the defensive bar point seems less valuable
than usual. I'm not seeing the utility of making the fifteen point, or
at least it's not as useful as the other options. So, I'll hit on the
bar point and make the four point anchor. 24/21 13/7*.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Oct 17 09:20:19 2022
XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
After hitting, I decided to play this as a blitz, and brought down
another builder with 13/10. Apparently, XG regards that plan as
too ambitious. X has only a one-point board after all, and he can
make a good anchor with 24/21. But see also the variant, where X
cannot anchor, and 24/21 and 13/10 are tied.
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.482
Player: 60.52% (G:19.20% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 39.48% (G:8.88% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.467..+0.497) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.387 (-0.095)
Player: 58.15% (G:20.81% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 41.85% (G:11.30% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.371..+0.403) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 21/18 13/7* eq:+0.368 (-0.114)
Player: 58.50% (G:18.42% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 41.50% (G:11.07% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.352..+0.385) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-eA---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.412
Player: 59.25% (G:18.52% B:1.15%)
Opponent: 40.75% (G:10.29% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.404..+0.421) - [88.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.405 (-0.008)
Player: 58.74% (G:20.59% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 41.26% (G:10.82% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.396..+0.414) - [11.2%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Oct 21 08:57:50 2022
XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Fri Oct 21 11:10:25 2022
On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:57:52 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
---
Tim Chow
Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
Stick Rice on Fri Oct 21 23:43:11 2022
On 10/21/2022 2:10 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.
I did. It's probably your newsreader outsmarting itself.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Oct 23 08:34:28 2022
XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I
considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
enough extra games to make up for that.
1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Sun Oct 23 10:06:18 2022
On Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 1:34:31 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
enough extra games to make up for that.
1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
From your title, I assumed that 22/16* was the mandatory hit, and the four was the problem.
I'm sure I would have got this problem right.
So we don't mind losing a few more gammons. Does this make this a should-have-used-the-DMP-Rule
situation?
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Jun 26 07:39:46 2023
XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O X |
| O | | O X O O X |
| O | | X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 176 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Tue Jun 27 20:54:31 2023
On 6/26/2023 7:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O X |
| O | | O X O O X |
| O | | X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 176 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65
Hmmmm.... ~30 pips of timing is not nearly enough for a 52 backgame, and hitting only makes it work. X has a Swiss cheese blockade, so hitting
seems to accomplish little.
The Kamikaze/Bagai play of 10/4 8/3* is intriguing, but I don't have the
stones to play it.
So I'll play the prosaic 20/9 without hitting. Is it correct for O to
hit on the nine? Don't know, so perhaps she'll make a bigger mistake
here than me. In any event, it seems to scratch the itches of pure play
and mobility.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Jun 28 08:26:25 2023
XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O X |
| O | | O X O O X |
| O | | X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 176 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65
XG agrees with ah...Clem that X doesn't have the timing for a backgame,
so its solution is to break one of the anchors.
I didn't roll out 20/9, but XGR++ thinks it's a double whopper with
cheese.
1. Rollout¹ 23/17 20/15* eq:+0.285
Player: 54.59% (G:12.68% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 45.41% (G:16.91% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.270..+0.301) - [98.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/14 20/15* eq:+0.262 (-0.024)
Player: 54.29% (G:13.35% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 45.71% (G:18.14% B:1.35%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.246..+0.278) - [2.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 20/15* 15/9 eq:+0.159 (-0.126)
Player: 50.69% (G:11.97% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 49.31% (G:18.46% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.145..+0.174) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Nov 6 09:35:22 2023
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 7 00:32:39 2023
On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 9:35:25 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
---
Tim Chow
10/8? Less blots, less shots. Seems straighforward.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Nov 8 09:22:08 2023
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
O's board is strong enough that minimizing shots wins the rollout.
I thought it was worth the risk to position my checkers more flexibly
in the outfield, but XG disagrees.
With a roll out 63, the bold play leaves just two more shots than
the safe play (see variant). XG 4-ply favors the bold play (barely!)
but a rollout overturns this verdict.
1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 10/8 eq:+0.576
Player: 63.86% (G:13.96% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.14% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.566..+0.586) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 17/15 17/11* eq:+0.510 (-0.066)
Player: 62.23% (G:15.99% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.77% (G:10.15% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.502..+0.517) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-----------------
Variant, XG 4-ply
-----------------
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. 4-ply 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.551
Player: 63.72% (G:16.17% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 36.28% (G:8.44% B:0.42%)
2. 4-ply 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.550 (-0.001)
Player: 62.50% (G:14.96% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 37.50% (G:6.56% B:0.22%)
3. 4-ply 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.531 (-0.020)
Player: 62.25% (G:17.38% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 37.75% (G:8.43% B:0.44%)
4. 4-ply 17/11* 4/1 eq:+0.469 (-0.082)
Player: 59.97% (G:16.39% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 40.03% (G:9.56% B:0.48%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
----------------
Variant, rollout
----------------
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.553
Player: 63.02% (G:14.95% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 36.98% (G:6.82% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.547..+0.560) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.533 (-0.021)
Player: 63.68% (G:15.88% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 36.32% (G:8.90% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.524..+0.542) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.522 (-0.032)
Player: 62.58% (G:16.96% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.42% (G:8.93% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.513..+0.530) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 10 16:40:29 2023
On 11/6/2023 9:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
17/15 dupes threes while 10/8 moves a blot to safety. Not sure which
leaves fewer shots and I'm not going to count since it's probably not
the deciding factor. O is busy getting off the bar so I'll take the opportunity to play fllexibly to make one of the three points that are
open in front of the anchor. So, 17/11* 17/15.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)