• Hit and then...?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 10 21:55:25 2021
    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 13 17:59:36 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I feel like your quiz title is trying to lead us into the wrong answer.
    Perhaps the bot won't hit but I will. 18/12* 5/4. It seems my only
    chance is to hope O enters and stays on the 1-point thus running out of
    plays before crunching his board.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Mon Sep 13 13:33:42 2021
    On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 6:59:37 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I feel like your quiz title is trying to lead us into the wrong answer. Perhaps the bot won't hit but I will. 18/12* 5/4. It seems my only
    chance is to hope O enters and stays on the 1-point thus running out of
    plays before crunching his board.
    Tim can be a bit tricky with his titles but not this time.
    We were extremely lucky to get a hitting number and we absolutely must hit.
    But the decision of how to play the ace does really matter (hence the quiz). This time, Tim really did mean what he said.
    The natural way to play these positions is 2/1 so that, even if we get hit, the opponent is rather trapped.
    18/12* 2/1 for me.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 16 00:33:03 2021
    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    The cube location makes a big difference here. With cube access,
    X is looking to cash next turn. 5/4 is a higher-variance play;
    it makes the good sequences better and the bad sequences worse,
    and in particular if O rolls a 2 then she will be too good. X just
    needs his good sequences to be good enough to cash, and 2/1
    accomplishes that, while avoiding giving O rolls that leave her
    too good.

    With the cube turned (or at DMP), the more aggressive 5/4 is XG's
    preference.

    Note also that if the Jacoby rule were in force, then X wouldn't
    have to worry about O being too good, and XG favors the somewhat unusual-looking 18/12*/11. I haven't tried to figure out why XG
    prefers this over 18/12* 5/4.

    1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.260
    Player: 60.28% (G:12.29% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 39.72% (G:19.99% B:0.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.257..+0.263) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.178 (-0.082)
    Player: 62.47% (G:16.78% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 37.53% (G:25.37% B:1.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.172..+0.183) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    --------------------
    With the cube turned
    --------------------

    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.130
    Player: 63.28% (G:16.16% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 36.72% (G:25.20% B:1.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.125..+0.136) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/12* eq:+0.032 (-0.098)
    Player: 60.22% (G:14.74% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 39.78% (G:26.65% B:1.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.027..+0.038) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 18/12* 12/11 eq:+0.012 (-0.119)
    Player: 59.39% (G:14.31% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 40.61% (G:26.58% B:1.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.006..+0.018) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.009 (-0.121)
    Player: 60.71% (G:11.50% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 39.29% (G:20.13% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.004..+0.014) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ------
    Jacoby
    ------

    XGID=--ABBDBB--b-a-----Bbbbbbb-:0:0:1:16:0:0:1:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 85 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 16

    1. Rollout¹ 18/12* 12/11 eq:+0.373
    Player: 58.28% (G:14.99% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 41.72% (G:27.02% B:1.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.367..+0.378) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/12* 5/4 eq:+0.333 (-0.039)
    Player: 62.79% (G:15.02% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 37.21% (G:24.15% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.000 (+0.333..+0.333) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/12* eq:+0.333 (-0.039)
    Player: 59.16% (G:14.07% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 40.84% (G:26.12% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.000 (+0.333..+0.333) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 18/12* 2/1 eq:+0.287 (-0.085)
    Player: 59.85% (G:11.77% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 40.15% (G:19.68% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.285..+0.289) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 31 18:56:06 2021
    XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O X O X X |
    | X O O O | | O X O |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Nov 1 13:28:53 2021
    On 10/31/2021 6:56 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O     O  O  O |   | O  X  O  X  X    |
     | X        O  O  O |   | O  X  O          |
     | X                |   |    X             |
     | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                X |   | X                |
     |       O        X |   | X                |
     | O     O        X |   | X           O    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 196  O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63


    X doesn't have the timing for a backgame even after making the second
    anchor so I'll run off the 23 point. If we're not playing a backgame we
    need to get that guy out of there at some point and escaping with tempo
    seems like the right plan. Moving on to the eleven point looks playable,
    but I prefer to run.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 2 14:17:48 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O X O X X |
    | X O O O | | O X O |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow


    Let's play 20/14*/11.

    By bringing the spare checker down to the outer board I have a better
    chance of making a close anchor to my home board. O would be hesitant
    to hit from the 10-point as well.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 7 23:20:15 2021
    XGID=--a---CC--b-aDa-bbbbCbAA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O X O X X |
    | X O O O | | O X O |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 196 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    This isn't a backgame, and X should be worry more about getting
    primed than about getting hit.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/14* eq:-0.526
    Player: 38.45% (G:8.02% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 61.55% (G:19.82% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.536..-0.516) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14* 14/11 eq:-0.605 (-0.079)
    Player: 36.58% (G:7.58% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 63.42% (G:20.69% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.617..-0.594) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/14* 7/4 eq:-0.616 (-0.090)
    Player: 37.69% (G:7.70% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 62.31% (G:24.76% B:1.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.627..-0.605) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jan 18 10:09:11 2022
    XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | X O | | O O | +---+
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O O X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jan 20 09:40:47 2022
    XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | X O | | O O | +---+
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O O X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 52

    I didn't see a compelling reason to leave any return shots, and played 13/11*/6. However, 13/11* 13/8 gives O only 3 out of 36 rolls to hit
    back, and gives X much better priming opportunities.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/11* eq:+0.401
    Player: 68.35% (G:22.04% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 31.65% (G:6.20% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.393..+0.410) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 11/6 eq:+0.309 (-0.093)
    Player: 64.18% (G:23.57% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 35.82% (G:6.80% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.301..+0.317) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 1 20:03:09 2022
    XGID=-b--BaE-BA--cC---a-dbBb---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X | | O O X O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 3 09:47:28 2022
    XGID=-b--BaE-BA--cC---a-dbBb---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X | | O O X O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    Despite the subject line, one really should consider the non-hitting
    play 9/8 6/4. However, XG does hit. After 6/5*, I played 13/11,
    and was surprised that XG wanted to play 5/3 instead. Apparently,
    XG judges both 6/5* 13/11 and 6/5* 6/4 to be too loose, given O's
    decent board and X's poor structure.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5* 5/3 eq:+0.266
    Player: 55.81% (G:18.90% B:1.51%)
    Opponent: 44.19% (G:12.92% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.257..+0.275) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/8 6/4 eq:+0.214 (-0.052)
    Player: 55.25% (G:13.75% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 44.75% (G:10.06% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.207..+0.220) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/5* eq:+0.205 (-0.061)
    Player: 54.82% (G:18.89% B:1.51%)
    Opponent: 45.18% (G:15.96% B:0.68%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.196..+0.213) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/5* eq:+0.200 (-0.066)
    Player: 54.23% (G:17.54% B:1.28%)
    Opponent: 45.77% (G:13.39% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.192..+0.208) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 3 08:16:54 2022
    XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 3 19:18:00 2022
    On 8/3/2022 8:16 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  X  O        X |
     | X           O    |   | O     O          |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X  X |   | X                |
     | O  O        X  X |   | X              O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 151  O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    Or just quietly make he bar point and be ahead in the race with both
    runners escaped while she still has a checker on the ace point.

    I'd expect that to be not much difference equity wise vs hitting and
    running either back checker. And the bot play may be to slot the five
    point, but I'll just make the defensive bar point here.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 5 08:32:18 2022
    XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    Congrats to ah_clem for avoiding the trap in the subject line.
    Even in the variant below, XG prefers to anchor.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.301
    Player: 57.36% (G:10.84% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 42.64% (G:6.39% B:0.21%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.290..+0.311) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.127 (-0.174)
    Player: 53.41% (G:14.63% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 46.59% (G:13.45% B:0.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.112..+0.142) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/11* eq:+0.093 (-0.208)
    Player: 52.95% (G:13.01% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 47.05% (G:13.47% B:0.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.080..+0.106) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dA--bA-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.305
    Player: 57.50% (G:12.22% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 42.50% (G:6.46% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.292..+0.318) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.273 (-0.032)
    Player: 57.42% (G:15.83% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 42.58% (G:12.94% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.260..+0.287) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 24 07:49:13 2022
    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 24 13:08:27 2022
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I don't see any real advantage in hitting.13/11, 24/23.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 24 10:45:23 2022
    On 8/24/2022 7:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O  O    |   | O     O        X |
     | X           O    |   | O     O        X |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X        X       |
     | O           X    |   | X     O  X     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 159  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21


    Splitting is the obvious play after the hit. QF says otherwise, but I
    don't do QF, so 24/23 6/4*

    Perhaps the post with the rollout will explain why some other play is
    better.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Wed Aug 24 10:48:30 2022
    On 8/24/2022 9:08 AM, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    I don't see any real advantage in hitting.13/11, 24/23.

    For opening replies it's correct to hit loose on the four or five point
    unless there's something clearly better like hitting outside the
    homeboard or playing one of the "naturals".

    Does the fact that O has a second homeboard point make the difference?
    Not sure, but might learn something here. The split certainly looks
    playable.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 26 09:51:22 2022
    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    Whether to lift the blot on the 4pt seems to be subtle decision.
    I chose to lift, but XG says that's a mistake. But for comparison,
    see the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/4* eq:-0.246
    Player: 44.52% (G:13.47% B:0.72%)
    Opponent: 55.48% (G:19.69% B:1.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.261..-0.230) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.317 (-0.072)
    Player: 42.78% (G:13.09% B:0.58%)
    Opponent: 57.22% (G:18.89% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.333..-0.301) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE-a-b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/4* eq:-0.276
    Player: 44.24% (G:13.07% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 55.76% (G:19.45% B:1.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.287..-0.266) - [51.2%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.277
    Player: 43.60% (G:12.97% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 56.40% (G:18.77% B:0.99%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.287..-0.266) - [48.8%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Oct 15 11:22:51 2022
    XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Oct 15 13:13:29 2022
    On 10/15/2022 11:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     X     O    |   | O     X        X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X  O |   | X              O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 166  O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    Ahead in the race, so making the defensive bar point seems less valuable
    than usual. I'm not seeing the utility of making the fifteen point, or
    at least it's not as useful as the other options. So, I'll hit on the
    bar point and make the four point anchor. 24/21 13/7*.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 17 09:20:19 2022
    XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    After hitting, I decided to play this as a blitz, and brought down
    another builder with 13/10. Apparently, XG regards that plan as
    too ambitious. X has only a one-point board after all, and he can
    make a good anchor with 24/21. But see also the variant, where X
    cannot anchor, and 24/21 and 13/10 are tied.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.482
    Player: 60.52% (G:19.20% B:1.06%)
    Opponent: 39.48% (G:8.88% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.467..+0.497) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.387 (-0.095)
    Player: 58.15% (G:20.81% B:1.38%)
    Opponent: 41.85% (G:11.30% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.371..+0.403) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 21/18 13/7* eq:+0.368 (-0.114)
    Player: 58.50% (G:18.42% B:1.13%)
    Opponent: 41.50% (G:11.07% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.352..+0.385) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aa----EaC---dD-A-c-eA---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.412
    Player: 59.25% (G:18.52% B:1.15%)
    Opponent: 40.75% (G:10.29% B:0.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.404..+0.421) - [88.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7* eq:+0.405 (-0.008)
    Player: 58.74% (G:20.59% B:1.28%)
    Opponent: 41.26% (G:10.82% B:0.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.396..+0.414) - [11.2%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 21 08:57:50 2022
    XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Oct 21 11:10:25 2022
    On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:57:52 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Oct 21 23:43:11 2022
    On 10/21/2022 2:10 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    Might want to try posting this again as a new thread.

    I did. It's probably your newsreader outsmarting itself.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 23 08:34:28 2022
    XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I
    considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
    around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
    game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
    leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
    lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
    enough extra games to make up for that.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
    Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
    Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Oct 23 10:06:18 2022
    On Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 1:34:31 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=---Aa-D-Ca--cD--abbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 171 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    After 13/9*, continuing with 9/3 looked natural to me. Of course I considered the double hit 22/16* 13/9*, but leaving five blots strewn
    around the board with no structure besides the points I started the
    game with seemed too loose. But it's also true that X really wants to
    leap the prime and doesn't want O to make her 9pt. The double hit does
    lose more gammons but the rollout below says that it wins more than
    enough extra games to make up for that.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 13/9* eq:-0.511
    Player: 38.75% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 61.25% (G:22.06% B:1.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.528..-0.493) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:-0.650 (-0.140)
    Player: 33.38% (G:9.35% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 66.62% (G:17.34% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.664..-0.637) - [0.0%]
    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    From your title, I assumed that 22/16* was the mandatory hit, and the four was the problem.
    I'm sure I would have got this problem right.
    So we don't mind losing a few more gammons. Does this make this a should-have-used-the-DMP-Rule
    situation?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 26 07:39:46 2023
    XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O X |
    | O | | O X O O X |
    | O | | X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X O | +---+
    | X X X | | X O | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 176 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Jun 27 20:54:31 2023
    On 6/26/2023 7:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |       O        O |   | O  X  O  O  X    |
     |                O |   | O  X  O  O  X    |
     |                O |   |    X     O       |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X  O             | +---+
     |       X     X  X |   | X  O             | | 2 |
     |       X     X  X |   | X  O     O  X    | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 176  O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    Hmmmm.... ~30 pips of timing is not nearly enough for a 52 backgame, and hitting only makes it work. X has a Swiss cheese blockade, so hitting
    seems to accomplish little.

    The Kamikaze/Bagai play of 10/4 8/3* is intriguing, but I don't have the
    stones to play it.

    So I'll play the prosaic 20/9 without hitting. Is it correct for O to
    hit on the nine? Don't know, so perhaps she'll make a bigger mistake
    here than me. In any event, it seems to scratch the itches of pure play
    and mobility.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 28 08:26:25 2023
    XGID=--Aa-cCBB-B----a--cbCbcB--:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O X |
    | O | | O X O O X |
    | O | | X O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X O | +---+
    | X X X | | X O | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 176 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    XG agrees with ah...Clem that X doesn't have the timing for a backgame,
    so its solution is to break one of the anchors.

    I didn't roll out 20/9, but XGR++ thinks it's a double whopper with
    cheese.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/17 20/15* eq:+0.285
    Player: 54.59% (G:12.68% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 45.41% (G:16.91% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.270..+0.301) - [98.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14 20/15* eq:+0.262 (-0.024)
    Player: 54.29% (G:13.35% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 45.71% (G:18.14% B:1.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.246..+0.278) - [2.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/15* 15/9 eq:+0.159 (-0.126)
    Player: 50.69% (G:11.97% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 49.31% (G:18.46% B:0.91%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.145..+0.174) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 6 09:35:22 2023
    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 7 00:32:39 2023
    On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 9:35:25 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    10/8? Less blots, less shots. Seems straighforward.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 8 09:22:08 2023
    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    O's board is strong enough that minimizing shots wins the rollout.
    I thought it was worth the risk to position my checkers more flexibly
    in the outfield, but XG disagrees.

    With a roll out 63, the bold play leaves just two more shots than
    the safe play (see variant). XG 4-ply favors the bold play (barely!)
    but a rollout overturns this verdict.

    1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 10/8 eq:+0.576
    Player: 63.86% (G:13.96% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 36.14% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.566..+0.586) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 17/15 17/11* eq:+0.510 (-0.066)
    Player: 62.23% (G:15.99% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 37.77% (G:10.15% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.502..+0.517) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -----------------
    Variant, XG 4-ply
    -----------------

    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. 4-ply 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.551
    Player: 63.72% (G:16.17% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 36.28% (G:8.44% B:0.42%)

    2. 4-ply 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.550 (-0.001)
    Player: 62.50% (G:14.96% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 37.50% (G:6.56% B:0.22%)

    3. 4-ply 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.531 (-0.020)
    Player: 62.25% (G:17.38% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 37.75% (G:8.43% B:0.44%)

    4. 4-ply 17/11* 4/1 eq:+0.469 (-0.082)
    Player: 59.97% (G:16.39% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 40.03% (G:9.56% B:0.48%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ----------------
    Variant, rollout
    ----------------

    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.553
    Player: 63.02% (G:14.95% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 36.98% (G:6.82% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.547..+0.560) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.533 (-0.021)
    Player: 63.68% (G:15.88% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 36.32% (G:8.90% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.524..+0.542) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.522 (-0.032)
    Player: 62.58% (G:16.96% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 37.42% (G:8.93% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.513..+0.530) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 10 16:40:29 2023
    On 11/6/2023 9:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             X    |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |             X    |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |                  |   | O        O       |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   |       X          |
     | O           X    |   |    X  X  O  X  X |
     | O  O  X     X    |   |    X  X  O  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 96  O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    17/15 dupes threes while 10/8 moves a blot to safety. Not sure which
    leaves fewer shots and I'm not going to count since it's probably not
    the deciding factor. O is busy getting off the bar so I'll take the opportunity to play fllexibly to make one of the three points that are
    open in front of the anchor. So, 17/11* 17/15.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)