On Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:14:25 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB--Ad-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
Hitting twice seemed natural to me, but at some point in a blot-hitting contest, it may be better to consolidate your advantage than to risk
losing it by continuing to hit. Here, I think I underestimated the
value of buttoning up on the 16pt (see variant for comparison).
1. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.464
Player: 61.55% (G:14.07% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 38.45% (G:8.95% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.449..+0.480) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.370 (-0.095)
Player: 58.40% (G:17.60% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 41.60% (G:10.07% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.353..+0.387) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB-A-d-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
1. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.372
Player: 58.25% (G:17.70% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 41.75% (G:9.83% B:0.46%)
2. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.333 (-0.038)
Player: 58.66% (G:14.92% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 41.34% (G:10.16% B:0.40%)
3. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 15/11 eq:+0.320 (-0.052)
Player: 57.85% (G:14.99% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 42.15% (G:9.35% B:0.35%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The difference in plays isn't nearly as much as your rollout indicates. Variance really at work.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)