• The ballad of rgb

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 9 15:29:05 2021
    I know not if my cube is weak
    Or if my cube be strong.
    All that we at rgb know
    is that Paul's formatting's often wrong.

    XGID=-a----EBDaB-bBa--abeb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:3:0X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
    :10

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X |
    | O X O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 139 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Sep 10 21:50:51 2021
    On 9/9/2021 6:29 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I know not if my cube is weak
    Or if my cube be strong.
    All that we at rgb know
    is that Paul's formatting's often wrong.

    XGID=-a----EBDaB-bBa--abeb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:3:0X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon :10

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X |
    | O X O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 139 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    With X having no board and a somewhat inflexible position, I would
    certainly take this as O. As for the double, I don't think most
    hitting rolls lose X's market. But maybe if X makes a good point
    and O fails to hit? I don't think I'd double OTB but this could
    be a double.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Sep 11 01:43:05 2021
    On Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 2:50:55 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/9/2021 6:29 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I know not if my cube is weak
    Or if my cube be strong.
    All that we at rgb know
    is that Paul's formatting's often wrong.

    XGID=-a----EBDaB-bBa--abeb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:3:0X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon :10

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X |
    | O X O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 139 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    With X having no board and a somewhat inflexible position, I would
    certainly take this as O. As for the double, I don't think most
    hitting rolls lose X's market. But maybe if X makes a good point
    and O fails to hit? I don't think I'd double OTB but this could
    be a double.

    Actually, it rolled out to a close pass.
    I kept the details carefully on my other computer, so I'll post the rollout today.
    I had a similar reaction OTB to you, in that I had trouble deciding whether to double or not.
    Fortunately, I decided to double.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Sep 11 03:58:30 2021
    On Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 9:43:06 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 2:50:55 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/9/2021 6:29 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I know not if my cube is weak
    Or if my cube be strong.
    All that we at rgb know
    is that Paul's formatting's often wrong.

    XGID=-a----EBDaB-bBa--abeb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:3:0X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon :10

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X |
    | O X O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 139 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    With X having no board and a somewhat inflexible position, I would certainly take this as O. As for the double, I don't think most
    hitting rolls lose X's market. But maybe if X makes a good point
    and O fails to hit? I don't think I'd double OTB but this could
    be a double.
    Actually, it rolled out to a close pass.
    I kept the details carefully on my other computer, so I'll post the rollout today.
    I had a similar reaction OTB to you, in that I had trouble deciding whether to double or not.
    Fortunately, I decided to double.

    Paul

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 75.10% (G:11.89% B:0.33%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.90% (G:3.63% B:0.12%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.20% (G:12.85% B:0.42%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.80% (G:3.90% B:0.16%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.587, Double=+1.192

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.865 (-0.135)
    Double/Take: +1.033 (+0.033)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.858..+0.872)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+1.020..+1.046)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 42 minutes 39 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Sep 12 12:57:31 2021
    On 9/11/2021 4:43 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Actually, it rolled out to a close pass.
    I kept the details carefully on my other computer, so I'll post the rollout today.
    I had a similar reaction OTB to you, in that I had trouble deciding whether to double or not.
    Fortunately, I decided to double.

    With hindsight, I can offer the following line of reasoning.

    What if O's two rearmost checkers were anchored on X's 5pt?
    Then it would be a fairly standard D/T. Splitting O's checkers
    can't be good for O, so it must still be a double, with the
    take in question.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Sep 13 01:03:46 2021
    On Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 5:57:34 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/11/2021 4:43 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Actually, it rolled out to a close pass.
    I kept the details carefully on my other computer, so I'll post the rollout today.
    I had a similar reaction OTB to you, in that I had trouble deciding whether to double or not.
    Fortunately, I decided to double.
    With hindsight, I can offer the following line of reasoning.

    What if O's two rearmost checkers were anchored on X's 5pt?
    Then it would be a fairly standard D/T. Splitting O's checkers
    can't be good for O, so it must still be a double, with the
    take in question.

    An excellent way of thinking about it.
    With that thought experiment, it might be a surprise that the pass is so marginal.

    However, I think that human intuition is suspect when it concerns decisions that are never made
    in practice. We can't move our checkers backwards. So when we're anchored on the 5 point, we never
    need to think about whether we would rather have one checker on the opponent's ace point and the other on their
    9 point. When you compare the two variants, many parlays work much better for the favourite when the opponent
    is anchored.
    Did you variantize here?
    I wouldn't be surprised if your variant is actually a pass too(?)
    Getting past the opponent's 5 point anchor is easier than usual in the variant, because there are so many landing spots
    for the midpoint checkers.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)