Re: An example of a reference system [WITH gnuBG and XG ids] (2/2)
From
Simon Woodhead@21:1/5 to
All on Fri May 6 09:23:05 2022
[continued from previous message]
Position ID: 2LYNwgC27cwAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X O | | X X X X X | On roll
| O X X O | | X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 128, X 82
X wins 93.8 O wins 6.2
2 pips _____________ With 1 steps & more timing ______________
XGID=--BBBBCbBB-a----bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNwgC27WwAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X O | | X X X X X | On roll
| O X X O | | X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 128, X 80
X wins 97.7 O wins 2.3
However, if you try to create 2 steps as before with checkers from the 1
and 2 points you will find that things are not that clear. Why? I
believe it is because the race just got closer and this has quite a
different effect depending on the distance of the anchor. The pattern
breaks as the race pattern comes in which I have not examined or rolled
out positions for it. It looks like I would have to work more on that
system before I can expand it and get real use from the rollouts below.
6 pips _____________ With 2 steps & more timing ______________
XGID=---BBBCbBB---Ba-bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LZNwABsOxsGAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| X O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X O | | X X X X | On roll
| X X O | | X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 125, X 102
X wins 74.6 O wins 25.4
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.485
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.862
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.138)
3. No double +0.755 ( -0.107)
Proper cube action: Double, take
5 pips _____________ With 2 steps & more timing ______________
XGID=---BBBCbBB--Ba--bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LaNwABsOxsDAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X O | | X X X X | On roll
| X X X O | | X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 126, X 100
X wins 83.9 O wins 16.1
4 pips _____________ With 2 steps & more timing ______________
XGID=---BBBCbBB-Ba---bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNwQBsO5sBAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X O | | X X X X | On roll
| O X X X O | | X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 127, X 98
X wins 90.2 O wins 9.8
3 pips _____________ With 2 steps & more timing ______________
XGID=---BBBCbBBBa----bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNwgBsO9sAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X O | | X X X X | On roll
| O X X X O | | X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 128, X 96
X wins 93.2 O wins 6.8
There are some other parameters that you can look at. Like what if X had
more timing with a third checker on his anchor for example. There is a
pattern here as well. For the 6 point difference deduct 4 for the 5
point deduct 3 for the 4 point deduct 2, for the 3 point deduct 1 and
for the 2 point deduct nothing.
6 pips _____________ With 3 checkers back ______________
XGID=-BBBBBBb-----Ca-bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LZNwADbtgEHAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X X | On roll
| O | | X X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 125, X 81
X wins 67.0 O wins 33.0
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.337
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.533
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.467)
3. No double +0.470 ( -0.063)
Proper cube action: Double, take
5 pips _____________ With 3 checkers back ______________
XGID=-BBBBBBb----Ca--bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LaNwADbtoEDAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X O | | X X X X X X | On roll
| X O | | X X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 126, X 78
X wins 76.2 O wins 23.8
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.537
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.966
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.034)
3. No double +0.863 ( -0.103)
Proper cube action: Double, take
4 pips _____________ With 3 checkers back ______________
XGID=-BBBBBBb---Ca---bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNwQDbtsEBAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X O | | X X X X X X | On roll
| O X O | | X X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 127, X 75
X wins 81.3 O wins 18.7
3 pips _____________ With 3 checkers back ______________
XGID=-BBBBBBb--Ca----bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNwgDbtuEAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X O | | X X X X X X | On roll
| O X O | | X X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 128, X 72
X wins 89.2 O wins 10.8
2 pips _____________ With 3 checkers back ______________
XGID=-BBBBBBb-Ca-----bbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 2LYNxADbtnEAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| O O O | | O O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X O | | X X X X X X | On roll
| O X O | | X X X X X X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 129, X 69
X wins 94.9 O wins 5.1
Do you really need to know this? As I understand it, it is quite
unlikely that you will need this kind of information OTB. At holding
games the favorite player will try to clear the spares from his back
points early in the game. So this information will not be very useful.
Still if you wanted to have expert understanding of the system, it would
make sense to note this. Kit's reference system has many small details
as well. The more experience you gain, the more you will be able to
understand how important is each piece of information around a reference system. However, working with reference systems tends to sort the
problem out on its own.
After you learn a reference system, every time you make a wrong
estimation while playing you go back to the reference system and try to
find again the why your estimation was wrong. Do not be lazy and only
check the number, try to understand what was wrong in your thinking
process. If there is a part of your reference system that does not come
up while playing for a while, then for sure you will not revise it and
next time you see it within your reference system you can move it at the
bottom or even hide it. While it is nice to know the exact value of each change, sometimes knowing just the size of the value (small, medium ,
large , XL) is enough to help you make correct decisions OTB. It is up
to you how deep you want to learn a reference system.
SUMARRY
Summary of findings For 1 step deduct For 2 steps deduct For 1
step with more timing For a third checker back deduct
6pt --> 37 4 2*4 As for 1 step +2% 4
5pt --> 27 4 1*4 +1*6 " 3
4pt --> 21 6 2*6 " 2
3pt --> 12 4 2*4 " 1
2pt --> 5 4 "
1pt --> 2
Note: Where you add 6 instead of 4 it is because the player gets 3 or
more numbers of the dice to clear an anchor and the value of clearing
the anchor is quite high at that position.
Is this an easy reference system to remember? Maybe if the positions and
the parameters you examine come out naturally from you it is.
If anyone wants a zip folder with all the rollout files emailed to him,
let me know. Below I post the rollout settings that were used for all
the rollouts. Only the seed probably differs.
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 732794327 and
quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful
Does this system have any practical value? I would say that it has some.
It is not one that you will meet positions of this kind often, but they
do come up once in a while and the system is quite easy to remember. I
used this system a number of times and it always worked well. Is this
system incomplete? Certainly yes. More parameters can be checked. Do you
find it big? Kit's reference system was very big as well, so this is
normal with reference systems. Do not be afraid to start a huge
reference system. I have found out that as the size of a reference
system grows, so does its importance, its generality and usefulness. The
most useful and interesting reference system I have discovered is based
around the initial position.
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O | On roll
| O X | | X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 167
X wins 52.6%
Do you know the winning percentage if you are on roll and you have made
your 5 pt while your opponent did not move at all.
XGID=-b---BC-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATCwc/ABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
Note by SW: this should really be XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATCwZ/ABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O | On roll
| O X | | X X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 165
X on roll
X wins 60.8% **************** This and all winning percentages
below are based upon XG mobile's 3 ply
The value of the 5 point for positions with little development from both
sides equals 60.8 - 52.6 or about 8%. To find the approximate value of
the 4,3,2 points, all you have to do is deduct 2% each time you make a
step. The 4 pt has a 6% value the 3 pt 4% and the 2 pt 2%.
Winning chances
5 pt 60
4 pt 58
3 pt 56
2 pt 52
Note: While XG's mobile winning estimation when you have the 5 pt is
closer to 61 than 60, whenever you make other changes to the position
that decrease the priming potential of X, then the value of the 5 pt is
closer to 60 and therefore I kept this estimation.
What if you had 2 points inside? The counting still works.
If you have the 54 combo you add 8 for the 5 6 for the 4 and an extra 1%
for the extra priming potential.
XGID=-b--BBB-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATDYZvABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X O | On roll
| O X | | X X X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 159
X wins 67%
If you have the 53 combo you add normally 8 + 4
XGID=-b-B-BB-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATDMZvABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X O | On roll
| O X | | X X X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 157
X wins 64%
If you have the 52 combo you add 8 + 2 -1 because of the decreased
priming potential.
XGID=-bB--BB-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATDGZvABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X O | On roll
| O X | | X X X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 155
X wins 61
How far can this counting go? Pretty far, if you keep adjusting the
value of each point and spare according to a logical way you can count
pretty complicated positions. But this is another subject and the
message is already too long.
Just a small example of what I mean by adjusting.
The value of having the opponent's 5 point and being on roll is 7%.
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-eB-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABAw Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O | | O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O | On roll
| O X | | X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 167, X 159
X wins 59.7
But if the opponent has his bar formed, and you hold his 5 point then
this takes away part of the opponent's advantage of having the bar
point. Therefore in that case,you should adjust the value of opponent's
5 point and increase it by 2.6, the 5 point is now worth 9.6.
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4NvgATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O O | | O X | 0 points
| X O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O | On roll
| O X | | X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 160, X 167
X wins 46.5
-----------------------------------------------
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbeB-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Position ID: 4NvgATDgc/ABAw Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
| X O O | | O X | 0 points
| X O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O | On roll
| O X | | X O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
Pip counts: O 160, X 159
X wins 56.1
Learning this difference as an integer of 2 or 3 is quite easy as many adjustments have this typical value around 2%. And if you understand the
why, then you can also very easily understand that the correct play for
43 after an opponent's 61 is 24/20 24/21.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)