On Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 12:32:26 AM UTC+1,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The position below is not technically a pure race but I would certainly
treat it as one, because the contact is minimal.
I Axelised this to a correct take.
However, my previous methods 8/9/12 and 10% + 2 both give
an incorrect drop.
Paul
XGID=-----BCAEB-acB-aa--d-a-bb-:0:0:-1:00:9:14:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:14 O:9. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 119 X-O: 14-9
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 76.70% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.30% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.538, Double=+1.069
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.825 (-0.080)
Double/Take: +0.905
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.095)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I think that, even with cruder counts like 8/9/12, it might be a take with more nuanced reasoning.
Just calling it a race ignores the contact parlay where XG rolls 22 and I hit. But this is a 1% parlay which isn't insignificant. If using 8/9/12, we would also need to consider positional elements that
aren't explicitly included, like XG's wasteful occupation of the lower points. So I think a thoughtful adjustment-minded
approach gives the take even without Axelising, but it's nice to have the take on a plate right away.
Paul
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