XGID=--aBBBC-B--ab----c-eB-bBa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O X O |
| O | | O X O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBBBC-B--ab----c-eB-bBa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O X O |
| O | | O X O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has a powerful containment formation with great gammon chances,
but he is still 20 pips down with a somewhat disconnected position.
I thought this was a take, but XG says it's a big pass. O's blots
on her 1pt and 14pt are seriously liabilities.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.01% (G:35.87% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.99% (G:8.71% B:0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.20% (G:36.10% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.80% (G:8.71% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.813 (-0.187)
Double/Take: +1.094 (+0.094)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.800..+0.825)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.075..+1.113)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O has a sizable lead in the pip count and (temporarily at least) an
excellent board. But what are her chances of escaping and/or hitting
a shot, versus X successfully priming and/or closing out O's straggler
while her forward structure collapses?

I was spooked by X's priming potential and passed this cube, but XG says
it's an easy take. For comparison, see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:3.76% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:4.69% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.82% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.18% (G:4.86% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.724 (-0.045)
Double/Take: +0.769
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.231)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.731)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.759..+0.779)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BBCC-AB--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.18% (G:4.41% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.82% (G:3.53% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G:5.12% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G:3.98% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.857 (-0.143)
Double/Take: +1.087 (+0.087)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.850..+0.864)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.077..+1.096)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, January 9, 2023 at 11:09:52 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
O has a sizable lead in the pip count and (temporarily at least) an excellent board. But what are her chances of escaping and/or hitting
a shot, versus X successfully priming and/or closing out O's straggler
while her forward structure collapses?

I was spooked by X's priming potential and passed this cube, but XG says it's an easy take. For comparison, see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:3.76% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:4.69% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.82% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.18% (G:4.86% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.724 (-0.045)
Double/Take: +0.769
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.231)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.731)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.759..+0.779)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BBCC-AB--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.18% (G:4.41% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.82% (G:3.53% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G:5.12% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G:3.98% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.857 (-0.143)
Double/Take: +1.087 (+0.087)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.850..+0.864)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.077..+1.096)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

You need to include two variants when you roll the extra checker off the 10pt. By rolling it to the 9pt as in your variant you've slotted the 10pt, another potential point in your prime, added a builder/attacker for the 3pt if the opponent should step
up, and created the overall outfield coverage/flexibility. If, however, you'd have rolled it back to the 11pt (and set the opponent back a pip to keep things even keel if you like) now there's still the increased outfield coverage and many added numbers
to make points at the back of the prime but we lose out on the direct slot and the builder for the 3pt and it's a take.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--e-d--b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 10:33:46 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--e-d--b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

A huge pass in my opinion.
This is because of the multiplicative effect.
The opponent is hoping to jump the prime AND avoid being hit
AND win a race (despite the current pip-count deficit).

In a similar position, if O was ahead in the pip count, O could
think about taking because O would then be a fave to win the race
if the containment problems are solved.
But the fact that the opponent is at a race deficit even if the containment fails means a big pass to me.

D/P.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:18:18 AM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 10:33:46 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--e-d--b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

A huge pass in my opinion.
This is because of the multiplicative effect.
The opponent is hoping to jump the prime AND avoid being hit
AND win a race (despite the current pip-count deficit).

In a similar position, if O was ahead in the pip count, O could
think about taking because O would then be a fave to win the race
if the containment problems are solved.
But the fact that the opponent is at a race deficit even if the containment fails means a big pass to me.

D/P.

It occurs to me that I didn't consider TG although I think non-Jacoby is the default assumption.
I do think that TG is the second most likely possibility but there are market gainers, for example if the opponent hits on the next roll.
I think a gammon seems unrealistic but gaining market also seems unlikely
I'll stick with D/P but TG wouldn't surprise me.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--e-d--b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I have a separate folder for containment cubes of this type, where
the opponent has a single straggler and the only other contact is
at the midpoints. Two key things I look for are:

- Do I have a four-prime (or better)?
- Do I have a 10-pip lead (or better)?

If the answer to either question is yes then my rule of thumb is
that it's probably a double, and if there are other favorable conditions
then it may be a pass.

Here I didn't think that there were "other favorable conditions" so I
took, but XG says that's a huge mistake. The biggest favorable
condition that I overlooked was that O's offensive position is weak.
She has awkward stacks and a weak board. If we strengthen O's board
by making her 5pt (see variant) then XG takes.

The other favorable condition is that X has a bunch of rolls that make
a five-prime. This is enough to make the take rather close even in
the variant, according to the rollout.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.09% (G:11.90% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.91% (G:2.02% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.58% (G:12.15% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.42% (G:2.51% B:0.07%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.976 (-0.024)
Double/Take: +1.238 (+0.238)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.971..+0.980)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.225..+1.250)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--d-cb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.38% (G:8.09% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.62% (G:2.64% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.58% (G:8.47% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.42% (G:3.07% B:0.06%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.870 (-0.095)
Double/Take: +0.966
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.034)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.860..+0.881)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.953..+0.979)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:58:57 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--e-d--b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
I have a separate folder for containment cubes of this type, where
the opponent has a single straggler and the only other contact is
at the midpoints. Two key things I look for are:

- Do I have a four-prime (or better)?
- Do I have a 10-pip lead (or better)?

If the answer to either question is yes then my rule of thumb is
that it's probably a double, and if there are other favorable conditions then it may be a pass.

Here I didn't think that there were "other favorable conditions" so I
took, but XG says that's a huge mistake. The biggest favorable
condition that I overlooked was that O's offensive position is weak.
She has awkward stacks and a weak board. If we strengthen O's board
by making her 5pt (see variant) then XG takes.

The other favorable condition is that X has a bunch of rolls that make
a five-prime. This is enough to make the take rather close even in
the variant, according to the rollout.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.09% (G:11.90% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.91% (G:2.02% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.58% (G:12.15% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.42% (G:2.51% B:0.07%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.976 (-0.024)
Double/Take: +1.238 (+0.238)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.971..+0.980)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.225..+1.250)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a---BCBC-A-cCA--d-cb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.38% (G:8.09% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.62% (G:2.64% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.58% (G:8.47% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.42% (G:3.07% B:0.06%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.870 (-0.095)
Double/Take: +0.966
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.034)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.860..+0.881)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.953..+0.979)

Oh, wow! A huge pass just like I said, with TG very close behind.
(I said I would be unsurprised by TG.)
I seem to have really understood this position extremely well.
I'm impressed by myself, here.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BaBBBCB--------abbbBcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/2/2023 9:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--BaBBBCB--------abbbBcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O  O |   | O  O  X  O  O  O |
 |                O |   | O  O  X  O  O  O |
 |                  |   |          O       |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                X |   |                  | +---+
 |             X  X |   | X  X  X     X    | | 2 |
 |             X  X |   | X  X  X  O  X    | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 113  O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Fours are duped, but except for 54, 31, 22, and 11 hitting in the
outfield seems clear. Seems like any four is a market loser, as are any doubles (66 makes the full prime) so that's 21 market losers.

Does X still have a market? Any of the other 15 rolls with O rolling a
six and she's back in the game. With her substantial race lead it would
seem to be a take.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BaBBBCB--------abbbBcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

OTB, I passed this one, but neglected to observe that X's 4's were
duplicated. In the variant, I have shifted X's spare from his 7pt
to his 6pt and XG says it's a pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.93% (G:15.84% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.07% (G:6.62% B:0.06%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.69% (G:16.00% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.31% (G:7.34% B:0.06%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.689 (-0.159)
Redouble/Take: +0.849
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.151)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.684..+0.695)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.838..+0.860)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BaBBCBB--------abbbBcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.76% (G:17.71% B:0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.24% (G:6.45% B:0.10%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.72% (G:18.59% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.28% (G:7.56% B:0.12%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.788 (-0.212)
Redouble/Take: +1.035 (+0.035)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.782..+0.795)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.022..+1.047)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aAABBBBA-A-----Abb-bdB-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 9:36:54 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aAABBBBA-A-----Abb-bdB-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

If we roll a natural five like [32 41] and decided to cover our two point and the opponent fans is that position a pass?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aAABBBBA-A-----Abb-bdB-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

This is a position where O'Hagan's Law might lead you astray, even with
a centered cube. According to XG, there are 14 rolls which, if followed
by a dance, lose X's market (66 65 61 54 53 52 43 33), and there are a
small number of other market-losing sequences as well (e.g., if X rolls
21, played 9/7 2/1, and O rolls 52 from the bar, exposing another blot). Multiplying 14 by 25/36 gives about 9.7, so we're slightly over
O'Hagan's threshold of 25% for a centered cube. The remaining part of O'Hagan's law asks if X is doing reasonably well if he doesn't lose his
market. Most of the time, the answer is yes; as long as O dances, X is
doing well, and even if O enters without hitting (because X has played
2/1), it's not so bad for X. However, if O enters with a hit, then that
is bad news for X. It's not easy to judge all these things OTB, but the rollout indicates a sizable ND, even with a centered cube.

Forgetting about O'Hagan's Law for a moment, and just looking at the
position, it's important that X may still have some trouble escaping
his back checkers. Rolls such as 55 and 44, for example, may look
pretty good at first glance, but come with a risk of crunching X's
board if he can't immediately escape a checker. Even O's checkers on
her 1pt and 2pt aren't useless because she might hit a checker on her
next turn. These sorts of considerations are what allow O to take even
after some of the cover/dance sequences, according to XG.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.01% (G:13.06% B:0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.99% (G:9.65% B:0.25%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:12.82% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:9.88% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.630
Redouble/Take: +0.474 (-0.156)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.370)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 29.7%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.621..+0.639)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.459..+0.489)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------
Centered cube
-------------

XGID=aAABBBBA-A-----Abb-bdB-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.99% (G:12.79% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.01% (G:9.52% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:12.82% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:9.88% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.567
Double/Take: +0.474 (-0.093)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.433)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.8%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.557..+0.578)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.459..+0.489)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/7/2023 9:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aAABBBBA-A-----Abb-bdB-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       X  O  O    |   | O  O  X     O  O |
 |          O  O    |   | O  O  X     O  O |
 |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |                  |   | X  X  X  X       | | 2 |
 |          X     X |   | X  X  X  X  X  X | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 112  O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Any 1, 5, 6, 7, or 8 makes a fifth homeboard point. Seeems like too
many market losers to hold. I don't think it's TG since O has some
counterplay and X has work to do to get his runners around. Plus it
looks like it might be a take.

Ship it for sure and make it O's problem. I'd pass this one due to all
the rolls that make a fifth homeboard point, and even if I can enter and
hit I'm still stuck behind a four or five prime.

R/P

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)