The following position (which I solved correctly OTB) seems to
be of the type that was addressed by an article Tim posted.
Unfortunately, I couldn't remember the content, but I got it right
anyway (with no confidence, though).

Paul

XGID=b-B-BCDAA---c----bbbbbB---:2:1:1:00:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon


Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| O | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/3/2022 4:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=b-B-BCDAA---c----bbbbbB---:2:1:1:00:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| O | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has a five-prime and if X does not roll a 6 then he'll be a bit
short on timing. Plus X has only a four-point board. Despite the
gammon risk, I think this is a clear take. Not sure about the double.
I think I would hold off unless I thought I would get a pass.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 3:36:21 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 5/3/2022 4:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=b-B-BCDAA---c----bbbbbB---:2:1:1:00:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| O | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has a five-prime and if X does not roll a 6 then he'll be a bit
short on timing. Plus X has only a four-point board. Despite the
gammon risk, I think this is a clear take. Not sure about the double.
I think I would hold off unless I thought I would get a pass.

I (correctly) doubled. However, I wasn't at all confident of this, and
while waiting for the evaluation, I was anticipating my double being flagged. it rolled out to a clear double and a clear take but the details are on my other computer.
I'll post them this evening.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 3:36:21 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 5/3/2022 4:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=b-B-BCDAA---c----bbbbbB---:2:1:1:00:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| O | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has a five-prime and if X does not roll a 6 then he'll be a bit
short on timing. Plus X has only a four-point board. Despite the
gammon risk, I think this is a clear take. Not sure about the double.
I think I would hold off unless I thought I would get a pass.

Also, I resulted a bit while I was thinking about this.
My next roll after the D/T was 55, and this increased my feelings
of insecurity about the double. (Completely irrationally of course).

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 10:39:34 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 3:36:21 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 5/3/2022 4:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=b-B-BCDAA---c----bbbbbB---:2:1:1:00:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| O | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has a five-prime and if X does not roll a 6 then he'll be a bit
short on timing. Plus X has only a four-point board. Despite the
gammon risk, I think this is a clear take. Not sure about the double.
I think I would hold off unless I thought I would get a pass.

Also, I resulted a bit while I was thinking about this.
My next roll after the D/T was 55, and this increased my feelings
of insecurity about the double. (Completely irrationally of course).

It's time for the after-dinner speech by your host: Rolly Rollout
I wasn't lying or joking when I said "Clear double, clear take."

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 60.86% (G:44.02% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.14% (G:8.14% B:0.38%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.98% (G:44.14% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.02% (G:8.13% B:0.35%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.578, Double=+1.164

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.720 (-0.097)
Redouble/Take: +0.817
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.183)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.707..+0.733)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.798..+0.836)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 41 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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