XGID=aCFa-BC-------a---bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aCFa-BC-------a---bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X O X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

X will be crunching very soon and most likely facing a gammon. I think
the only chance is to build a point in O's home board. I'd rather try
now before O starts hitting my straggler back there. Let's leave a man
open and hope he gets hit so I can enter with a 1.

6/3* 5/3

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aCFa-BC-------a---bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

Getting a second checker back so that X can anchor is often the best
way to win desperate positions like this one, but does it lose too
many gammons? Perhaps surprisingly, the play preferred by XG and by badgolferman, namely 6/3* 5/3, actually loses fewer gammons than the alternatives that don't leave an immediate blot. The problem with
6/3*/1 or 6/1 is that X is likely to leave a blot later anyway, so
he might as well focus on creating the best structure he can.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 5/3 eq:-1.135
Player: 3.93% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.07% (G:21.77% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.138..-1.131) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3* 3/1 eq:-1.178 (-0.043)
Player: 3.65% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.35% (G:25.35% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.180..-1.175) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/3* eq:-1.194 (-0.059)
Player: 3.65% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.35% (G:26.96% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.197..-1.191) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-1.203 (-0.068)
Player: 3.45% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.55% (G:27.24% B:1.15%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.205..-1.200) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-AB-aBBBB----BA---bbcbbbaA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-AB-aBBBB----BA---bbcbbbaA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

Killing checkers on the 1pt, especially in a priming battle, goes
against the grain. On the other hand, X's chances for building a
counter-prime are remote if he gets hit on the 1pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 13/12 2/1(2) eq:-0.747
Player: 24.01% (G:4.50% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 75.99% (G:35.17% B:2.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.756..-0.739) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/13 2/1(2) eq:-0.809 (-0.061)
Player: 19.76% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 80.24% (G:31.15% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.817..-0.801) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/11 eq:-0.849 (-0.101)
Player: 21.89% (G:4.27% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 78.11% (G:40.08% B:1.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.857..-0.841) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/12 13/12 eq:-0.858 (-0.110)
Player: 21.50% (G:4.16% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 78.50% (G:40.00% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.866..-0.849) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--BBBBBB------a-bbcbbbBA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:32:58 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=a--BBBBBB------a-bbcbbbBA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

8/1 seems to have the most potential, in a position where we are clear underdogs.
It preserves as much of our prime as we can. Also, we can get hit on the acepoint and
let the opponent crash while we dance. Or we can play a 1-2 backgame.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/14/2022 7:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=a--BBBBBB------a-bbcbbbBA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       O     O  O |   | O  O  O  O  X  X |  |             O  O |   | O  O  O  O  X    |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |             X  X |   | X  X  X  X       | | 2 |  |             X  X |   | X  X  X  X       | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 136  O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

Would I want a fourth checker back in the hopes of playing a backgame?
Don't think so. Might a checker on the roof cause O to crack before X
does? I think so.

Volunteering a shot may well be correct. But I'll make the safe play and
hope for the best.


8/3 8/6.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--BBBBBB------a-bbcbbbBA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

Prime-versus-prime problems are often treacherous. Six-primes are
particularly treacherous since you *have* to get your opponent to
crack and you have no "slime vig" so to speak. I think Paul
analyzed this position well. X wants to preserve his prime as long
as possible. The play 8/1 is *not* an attempt to play a backgame;
the point is that if he is hit back on the 1pt, then O will still
have some trouble extricating her straggler, and if X dances then
he delays crunching.

In lieu of variants, I have included two similarly-themed problems
taken from another recent game of mine.

1. Rollout¹ 8/1 eq:-0.876
Player: 17.26% (G:2.39% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 82.74% (G:29.86% B:1.72%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.884..-0.868) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq:-0.960 (-0.084)
Player: 14.22% (G:1.17% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 85.78% (G:29.49% B:1.64%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.966..-0.953) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/3 eq:-0.963 (-0.087)
Player: 12.84% (G:1.09% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 87.16% (G:26.70% B:1.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.969..-0.957) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Bonus 1
-------

XGID=b--BCCBA-A-aAA----bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 12/7 5/1 eq:-0.452
Player: 28.79% (G:7.09% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 71.21% (G:19.85% B:1.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.463..-0.441) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 12/7 9/5 eq:-0.547 (-0.095)
Player: 23.45% (G:5.84% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 76.55% (G:15.48% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.559..-0.536) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9 12/7 eq:-0.648 (-0.196)
Player: 20.28% (G:3.66% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 79.72% (G:15.65% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.657..-0.640) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 12/8 eq:-0.661 (-0.209)
Player: 19.15% (G:3.37% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 80.85% (G:13.98% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.669..-0.653) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Bonus 2
-------

XGID=a-aBCCBB-B-a------bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 9/8(2) 4/2* eq:-0.409
Player: 28.62% (G:5.96% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 71.38% (G:14.24% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.417..-0.401) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/8(2) 5/3 eq:-0.603 (-0.194)
Player: 21.50% (G:3.84% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 78.50% (G:14.32% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.611..-0.595) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 2:58:30 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
...I think Paul

analyzed this position well.

...

In lieu of variants, I have included two similarly-themed problems
taken from another recent game of mine.

...
Glad I did well here. I'm sure this happens less than 50% of the time
when I answer (but I'm not sure how much less than 50%).

I haven't bothered to google this yet, but isn't the simpler and more
common "instead" to be preferred to "in lieu"?
I think that "in lieu" has a very formal register which doesn't fit the present context. The only times I can recall seeing this phrase is in the context
of funerals where the death notice says (something like):
"In lieu of flowers, please donate to..."

For example, suppose you finish your backgammon chouette early and head
for the nearest burger joint. [It would have been more efficient to play bg
at the burger place, but the environment there is too noisy, and there aren't enough free seats.]
If you asked for Coke, wouldn't you be just a tad surprised if your server replied:
"I'm afraid we've run out of that. It is ok if I give you Pepsi in lieu of Coke?"

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/16/2022 1:54 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

If you asked for Coke, wouldn't you be just a tad surprised if your server replied:
"I'm afraid we've run out of that. It is ok if I give you Pepsi in lieu of Coke?"

It would just reinforce the stereotype that the only job
you can get with a Ph.D. in the humanities is flipping burgers.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 1:56:59 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 11/16/2022 1:54 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

If you asked for Coke, wouldn't you be just a tad surprised if your server replied:
"I'm afraid we've run out of that. It is ok if I give you Pepsi in lieu of Coke?"

It would just reinforce the stereotype that the only job
you can get with a Ph.D. in the humanities is flipping burgers.

Since I'm a cousin of Diana Paton, I'm unlikely to believe that stereotype.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--bABCD--A---B--bbcbbbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/19/2023 9:24 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--bABCD--A---B--bbcbbbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O  O |   | O  O  O  X       |
 | X        O  O  O |   | O  O  O  X       |
 |                O |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X  X             | +---+
 |                  |   | X  X  X     O    | | 2 |
 |          X       |   | X  X  X  X  O    | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 129  O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

If this was GS, I'd cover the blot on the three and play 6/4. But it's
not and the way to win this game is to counterprime and hope O crunches.
So, I'll make the bar point despite the additional gammon losses.

13/7 9/7.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, October 19, 2023 at 10:36:16 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 10/19/2023 9:24 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--bABCD--A---B--bbcbbbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

If this was GS, I'd cover the blot on the three and play 6/4. But it's
not and the way to win this game is to counterprime and hope O crunches.
So, I'll make the bar point despite the additional gammon losses.

13/7 9/7.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Best way not to get gammoned is to win the game.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--bABCD--A---B--bbcbbbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X O | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

Both 9/3 6/4 and 13/7 9/7 make a four-prime, but 13/7 9/7 leaves a
direct shot. So why isn't 9/3 6/4 better? In a priming battle such
as this one, the quality of the prime matters more than shots. After
9/3 6/4 or 9/3 13/11, it's hard for X to extend his prime. But 13/7
9/7 uses his outfield checkers very efficiently, and gives X good
chances of making a five-prime if he's missed. And if O rolls an ace?
Well, O can't hit with 41 without breaking her six-prime, and since
O has only a three-point board, X has a good chance of entering and
perhaps making his own 3pt eventually anyway, using his spares.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:-0.201
Player: 35.88% (G:8.71% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 64.12% (G:13.15% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.210..-0.192) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 6/4 eq:-0.344 (-0.144)
Player: 30.29% (G:6.64% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 69.71% (G:11.04% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.352..-0.337) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 9/3 eq:-0.358 (-0.157)
Player: 29.93% (G:6.67% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 70.07% (G:11.52% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.366..-0.350) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow

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