• Hit 2?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Apr 29 08:18:12 2022
    Subject line not to be confused with "Hit? 2".

    XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-babbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 1 20:02:16 2022
    XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-babbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    I hit twice, as does XG 3-ply, but the rollout deems the double hit a
    blunder. Hitting twice does give O a few more return shots, both right
    away and on the next turn (if X does not cover), and O's offensive
    position is pretty strong. But see the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.396
    Player: 60.62% (G:8.67% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 39.38% (G:7.83% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.387..+0.406) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/4* 6/1*(2) eq:+0.314 (-0.082)
    Player: 56.81% (G:18.16% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 43.19% (G:11.60% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.301..+0.327) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-b-bbba---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 142 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 14/4* 6/1*(2) eq:+0.421
    Player: 59.14% (G:19.97% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 40.86% (G:11.86% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.414..+0.427) - [98.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.009)
    Player: 60.93% (G:10.11% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 39.07% (G:8.54% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.406..+0.416) - [1.4%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)