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  • Paul would say this is a very easy quiz question

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 6 22:27:49 2021
    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C--adce--B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Sep 7 03:33:42 2021
    On Tuesday, September 7, 2021 at 3:27:51 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C--adce--B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    OTB, I would see this as very easy -- a clear ND/T. However, in backgammon, decisions that seem obvious can be wrong, particularly in quizzes.
    Here, we do have market losers (for example, we hit the blot and the opponent hits an 11% dance). However, the market losers that are big passes
    are few and far between. So I would wait.
    Also the opponent has some nice prime-extending possibilities.
    On the other hand, XG does sometimes double these sorts of positions.

    Here's how I see this in full.
    QF is definitely a thing -- people (probably rightly) are somewhat unlikely to post a very standard position with a very standard play (unless it's
    part of an ongoing conversation like Tim's 33 problem).
    Something has to be interesting for it to be worth asking about.
    For example, if Tim makes a cup of instant coffee for a friend, he probably doesn't ask about the aroma, bitterness, quality of the brewing etc.
    However, if he had travelled to India, learned about a type of Karnataka coffee, and offered this to a friend, then I wouldn't be surprised if
    he wanted to discuss the coffee in more detail.
    Therefore, bearing in mind QF combined with my XG experience, I would vote for D/T if I cared mainly about being correct.

    However, I think these quizzes work better if people (try to) ignore QF and use their bg analysis and intuition.
    This approach leads me to ND/T.

    So ND/T for me, but I do expect (70% confidence approx) to be wrong.
    This remind me of Mike/badgolferman's comment that he hopes to be wrong in the quizzes so that he can learn something.
    I'm not 100% sure it's him who said this but I think so.

    Paul

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  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Sep 7 11:04:03 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C--adce--B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow


    Since Paul says ND/T then there must be a wrong answer given and that
    will be mine. I say Double/Pass. Double because I will soon prime O
    and still have plenty timing. Pass because O is about to crunch up
    their board.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Tue Sep 7 14:52:48 2021
    On Tuesday, September 7, 2021 at 12:04:05 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C--adce--B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Since Paul says ND/T then there must be a wrong answer given and that
    will be mine. I say Double/Pass. Double because I will soon prime O
    and still have plenty timing. Pass because O is about to crunch up
    their board.
    Assuming my memory is correct of you saying that you hope to wrong, when you say you're wrong here,
    are you sure you're not being a bit overoptimistic?
    Don't set yourself up for disappointment in the event that you are actually correct.

    Paul

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 9 08:19:24 2021
    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C--adce--B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    The subject line was intended as a veiled reference to "all ace-point
    games are passes." Of course, this isn't exactly an ace-point game,
    but O's ace-point checkers are rather badly hemmed in, and X is
    threatening to send another checker back. O does have some counter-
    priming chances, but according to XG, they're insufficient, and the
    rollout indicates a big pass. But see also the variant, where O's
    blot is on her 5pt, and the rollout indicates a close take.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:20.87% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:5.49% B:0.24%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.05% (G:21.17% B:1.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.95% (G:5.59% B:0.25%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.923 (-0.077)
    Double/Take: +1.144 (+0.144)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.915..+0.932)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.127..+1.160)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-b--B-CBBA---C---dcea-B---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 72.00% (G:20.47% B:1.06%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.00% (G:6.58% B:0.30%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.08% (G:20.73% B:1.05%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.92% (G:6.71% B:0.33%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.836 (-0.135)
    Double/Take: +0.971
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.029)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.823..+0.849)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.954..+0.989)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)