XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 2:32:14 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

11/7(2) 8/4(2). We are big underdogs. Our main winning parlay is to quickly roll a 6 and hope that either the 6 lets us hit or
that we can avoid being hit while we cash in our racing lead.
Keeping the 11 point rather than breaking it seems to just make our game more difficult -- just an extra difficult point to clear.
So 11/7(2). Although we have a racing lead, many of our wins come from hitting so we do well to strengthen our board with
8/4(2).

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

Paul is in good company with his play of 11/7(2) 8/4(2), because
that's what XG 3-ply plays too. However, a rollout overturns that
judgment. I believe that the reason is that giving up the 11pt
gives O too much free rein to flood the outfield and contain X's
straggler. Even given that, though, I'm a little surprised that
XG volunteers a blot on the 7pt with 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 instead of
playing 8/4(2) 7/3(2).

1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 eq:-0.182
Player: 35.75% (G:12.58% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:10.39% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.191..-0.174) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3(2) eq:-0.227 (-0.045)
Player: 34.12% (G:10.96% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 65.88% (G:10.24% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.236..-0.218) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/3 6/2 eq:-0.259 (-0.077)
Player: 32.45% (G:10.38% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.55% (G:7.28% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.267..-0.251) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.260 (-0.078)
Player: 31.90% (G:11.06% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 68.10% (G:5.54% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.269..-0.252) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 8:41:57 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44
Paul is in good company with his play of 11/7(2) 8/4(2), because
that's what XG 3-ply plays too. However, a rollout overturns that
judgment. I believe that the reason is that giving up the 11pt
gives O too much free rein to flood the outfield and contain X's
straggler. Even given that, though, I'm a little surprised that
XG volunteers a blot on the 7pt with 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 instead of
playing 8/4(2) 7/3(2).

1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 eq:-0.182
Player: 35.75% (G:12.58% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:10.39% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.191..-0.174) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3(2) eq:-0.227 (-0.045)
Player: 34.12% (G:10.96% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 65.88% (G:10.24% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.236..-0.218) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/3 6/2 eq:-0.259 (-0.077)
Player: 32.45% (G:10.38% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.55% (G:7.28% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.267..-0.251) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.260 (-0.078)
Player: 31.90% (G:11.06% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 68.10% (G:5.54% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.269..-0.252) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

4(2) 3(2) doesn't make the 5 point board and leaves a slightly more inflexible position that maybe never makes the 5 point board. And XG leaves the blot because it's hardly any shots. On a lot (most) twos the opponent shouldn't hit.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)