As I understand it, a racing algo specialist has two tasks:
1) Convert game-winning-probability into cube action.
2) Find the game-winning probability.
On 4/19/2022 6:36 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
As I understand it, a racing algo specialist has two tasks:This isn't how all algorithms work. Some simply ignore match play and
1) Convert game-winning-probability into cube action.
2) Find the game-winning probability.
focus only on delivering a verdict on the cube action. In principle,
such an algorithm could (for example) correctly judge that Position A
is a double and Position B is not a double even though Position B has
higher game-winning chances. Any algorithm that tries to account for
Jacoby paradoxes will have this property.
Which algos don't work like that?
I think Isight works like that.
On 4/20/2022 3:25 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
Which algos don't work like that?Most older algorithms don't compute winning chances. They
I think Isight works like that.
just tell you to count pips, make some adjustments, and then
make a corresponding cube decision, assuming a money game.
Kleinman was one of the few analysts who actually tried to
provide a rule for estimating winning chances.
You're right about Isight, but when it first came out, it
was exceptional in this regard.
Therefore, when Isight makes errors, we have to distinguish between
two types of errors.
1) Are the thresholds correct? (For example 68/70/76 in money games).
2) Does the Isight probability accurately capture the real-world probability?
I'm surprised at the 76 threshold. That seems too low for races where
the recube vig can be considerable. I would have expected 78 or so.
Given that the parameters have been very well-tuned, just using
68/70/78 and making no other changes would be bound to make the model
worse.
The 68/70/76 parameters alone would make me suspect weak passes. I'm
sure we don't get that, because of the high performance and tuning but
it could be that there is some other compensatory factor that is
preventing the weak passes.
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