XGID=-a----E-C-a-eD---bAd-b--AA:0:0:-1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 173 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
On 9/4/2021 10:18 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
XGID=-a----E-C-a-eD---bAd-b--AA:0:0:-1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+Stick would want you to write 42P-63S-63R-F-C, whatever that means.
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 173 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
X is already up 20 pips in the race. He has made his 4pt and has
mostly escaped one of his back checkers. O has, in effect, moved
backwards 6 pips from the start of the game. This has to be a big
double and I'm not sure about the take. Normally if the blitzer
has only 8 checkers in the zone and only one new home-board point
made then it's a clear take, but I've been burned before by not
giving enough weight to X's advantages in this sort of position.
I'll still say D/T though.
Good analysis.
I (correctly) took but got dinged for it in the analysis -- something like 1.04,
I think.
However, when I did a full rollout, it rolled out to a 0.94 take.
It's still quite a bit closer than I thought.
I (wrongly) saw the take as being very clear.
Unfortunately, I didn't save the rollout.
On 9/5/2021 5:41 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:Hi Tim,
Good analysis.
I (correctly) took but got dinged for it in the analysis -- something like 1.04,
I think.
However, when I did a full rollout, it rolled out to a 0.94 take.
It's still quite a bit closer than I thought.
I (wrongly) saw the take as being very clear.
Unfortunately, I didn't save the rollout.Just now, I did a rollout, but it doesn't confirm your claim
of a 0.94 take.
XGID=-a----E-C-a-eD---bAd-b--AA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 173 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.73% (G:28.61% B:1.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.27% (G:6.38% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.50% (G:30.86% B:1.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.50% (G:6.85% B:0.30%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.849 (-0.151)
Double/Take: +1.009 (+0.009)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.837..+0.861)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.990..+1.028)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Sysop: | Keyop |
---|---|
Location: | Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, UK |
Users: | 296 |
Nodes: | 16 (2 / 14) |
Uptime: | 14:24:39 |
Calls: | 6,645 |
Files: | 12,190 |
Messages: | 5,326,927 |