• Double hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Apr 19 08:30:53 2022
    XGID=-AB-aBBBB----B-a-bcbdB-b--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X O |
    | X O O | | O O X O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Apr 21 09:31:00 2022
    XGID=-AB-aBBBB----B-a-bcbdB-b--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X O |
    | X O O | | O O X O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 63

    Hitting twice is of course the most gammonish play, and XG plays it
    at gammon go. In fact, XG hits twice at DMP as well. However, hitting
    twice also loses a lot of gammons, and for money, the rollout below
    puts 7/1 7/4* clearly on top.

    Another candidate is 21/15*/12. This gains more pips, sends a second
    checker back, and keeps the four-prime. But it dangerously breaks
    anchor while leaving a blot on the 1pt and forgoing a four-point board.

    1. Rollout¹ 7/1 7/4* eq:+0.224
    Player: 53.07% (G:20.21% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 46.93% (G:11.34% B:0.44%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.218..+0.230) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/15* 7/4* eq:+0.135 (-0.089)
    Player: 54.65% (G:23.46% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 45.35% (G:24.70% B:3.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.124..+0.145) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/12 eq:+0.098 (-0.126)
    Player: 52.93% (G:16.25% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 47.07% (G:20.07% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.085..+0.111) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)