With a healthy pip lead after my roll, I'm looking to race home past XG's
5 point, hoping not to get hit.
I want to clear the 11 point which is tough to clear without leaving shots.
So I played 12/4 11/7(2) which safely clears the 11 point.
Why is this a worse idea than drinking orange juice immediately after
you've brushed your teeth?

Paul

XGID=-A-BCbD----BA--Bab-cabbb--:1:1:1:44:0:4:3:0:1
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 106 X-O: 0-4
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

1. XG Roller+ 15/11(2) 12/4 eq:+0.579
Player: 67.48% (G:1.70% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 32.52% (G:1.11% B:0.01%)

2. XG Roller+ 12/4 11/7(2) eq:+0.479 (-0.101)
Player: 62.50% (G:2.36% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 37.50% (G:2.25% B:0.05%)

3. 4-ply 15/7(2) eq:+0.511 (-0.069)
Player: 64.24% (G:3.21% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 35.76% (G:2.76% B:0.08%)

4. 3-ply 15/11(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.461 (-0.119)
Player: 62.27% (G:3.63% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 37.73% (G:3.81% B:0.06%)

5. 3-ply 15/11 15/3 eq:+0.454 (-0.125)
Player: 61.98% (G:2.93% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 38.02% (G:3.22% B:0.06%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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On 4/1/2022 4:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

With a healthy pip lead after my roll, I'm looking to race home past XG's
5 point, hoping not to get hit.
I want to clear the 11 point which is tough to clear without leaving shots. So I played 12/4 11/7(2) which safely clears the 11 point.
Why is this a worse idea than drinking orange juice immediately after
you've brushed your teeth?

Good problem. In general I believe your instinctive desire to clear
the 11pt is a good one. For example, if the roll were 33 instead,
then XG plays 15/12(2) 11/8(2). The 11pt isn't a point you generally
want to hold on to in this sort of position when you're comfortably
ahead in the pip count.

What I think makes this position somewhat exceptional is that, first of
all, your 15pt is also not so easy to clear safely, and secondly,
15/11(2) 12/4 creates lots of spares, which gives you time to roll your
lucky doublets. Meanwhile, O doesn't have a tremendous amount of timing herself, and may be forced to either break anchor or crunch her board
while you're still using your spares to play safely.

As variants, see what happens when you move the 15pt checkers to your
14pt or your 13pt, which are easier to clear than the 15pt.

---
Tim Chow

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