Excited by the large number of XG's blots appearing juicy targets, it seemed
a fine time to slot the 5 point to take advantage of this.
It's a bad play though.
"I've got a story ain't got no moral.
Let the bad player win every once in a while."

I've got a story which has a moral -- don't get too excited.

Paul

XGID=-bB-B-BCC-A-bB---aadaa-ba-:1:-1:1:62:0:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| O X X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 127 X-O: 0-4
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. XG Roller+ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.683
Player: 82.94% (G:8.96% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 17.06% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)

2. XG Roller+ 13/5 eq:+0.477 (-0.206)
Player: 71.16% (G:23.28% B:3.19%)
Opponent: 28.84% (G:10.49% B:0.43%)

3. 4-ply 10/4 8/6 eq:+0.665 (-0.019)
Player: 81.77% (G:10.24% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 18.23% (G:1.31% B:0.03%)

4. 4-ply 13/7 8/6 eq:+0.617 (-0.066)
Player: 77.30% (G:16.77% B:1.84%)
Opponent: 22.70% (G:3.41% B:0.08%)

5. 4-ply 13/11 10/4 eq:+0.591 (-0.092)
Player: 77.02% (G:14.77% B:1.59%)
Opponent: 22.98% (G:3.10% B:0.07%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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On 4/1/2022 3:48 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Excited by the large number of XG's blots appearing juicy targets, it seemed a fine time to slot the 5 point to take advantage of this.
It's a bad play though.

A blotty board generally means that you can ignore indirect shots,
but it doesn't necessarily mean you can ignore direct shots, since
there will usually be a fair number of hit-and-covers.

13/11 13/7 gives you four builders for your 5pt, which is already
a lot. Slotting the 5pt doesn't actually increase your chances
of making your 5pt next turn because O, being in dire straits, will
hit with any direct 1 or 4 despite her blotty board.

---
Tim Chow

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