• 55 at gammon go

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 29 09:13:07 2022
    XGID=-a---BD-C---cC---b-b-cbAbB:0:0:1:55:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 111 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Apr 3 09:14:50 2022
    XGID=-a---BD-C---cC---b-b-cbAbB:0:0:1:55:0:1:1:2:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 111 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    The "obvious" play is to run 23/13. But it's gammon go, and X is still
    way behind in the pip count, so could it be right to attack with
    6/1*(2)? According to XG, no, 6/1*(2) is a whopper.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/20(2) 23/13 eq:+0.064
    Player: 44.11% (G:9.10% B:0.45%)
    Opponent: 55.89% (G:19.20% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.058..+0.071) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/20(2) 8/3(2) eq:-0.036 (-0.100)
    Player: 38.65% (G:9.56% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 61.35% (G:31.09% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.042..-0.029) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/20(2) 6/1*(2) eq:-0.055 (-0.119)
    Player: 37.13% (G:10.14% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 62.87% (G:29.78% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.061..-0.049) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)