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  • 5pt or 10pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 28 09:57:57 2022
    XGID=----a-E-D-AAbD---d-c-bc---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Mar 28 14:05:22 2022
    On Monday, March 28, 2022 at 9:57:59 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=----a-E-D-AAbD---d-c-bc---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow

    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer. I haven't looked at the problem but I'd have no problem betting good money the 10pt is correct otherwise it wouldn't have been saved/posted/brought up. It's not like a 'bar point or the
    5pt' problem. It's much more random and to come out of the blue like that ... well, I'm making the 10pt blind.

    It's like when you play multiple choice trivia and one answer is 'too long' so they have to shrink the font or go two lines to fit it in. They wouldn't have done it unless that was the right answer. Or, another trivia example, when the multiple choice
    answers are all common, well known names and there's one guy you've never heard of ...it's that guy otherwise why would they have included him? (unless it's a situation where there are no other *guys* as potential answers and they need to fill in the
    spot)

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Tue Mar 29 08:59:37 2022
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer.

    If you like, I can re-institute the hash functions to prove that
    you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Mar 29 18:26:01 2022
    On Tuesday, March 29, 2022 at 8:59:38 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer.
    If you like, I can re-institute the hash functions to prove that
    you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    With such a violent answer I must be right. And again, the experiment can't be done when the person posting knows that I'm on the other end guessing based on their title. Don't be silly.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Apr 2 09:21:27 2022
    On 3/29/2022 9:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 29, 2022 at 8:59:38 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer.
    If you like, I can re-institute the hash functions to prove that
    you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    With such a violent answer I must be right. And again, the experiment can't be done when the person posting knows that I'm on the other end guessing based on their title. Don't be silly.

    As usual, going down in flames when your bluff is called. I know that
    you're guessing every one of my problems based on the title, whether or
    not I have a hash value attached, so it would not change the
    experimental conditions in the slightest.

    You remind me of Murat, actually. He's convinced that he can predict
    GNUBG's dice. The same psychological effect is happening here, where
    you manage to convince yourself that your random guesses demonstrate
    your genius. And when a formal test is proposed, you duck out, because
    you know you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 2 09:47:09 2022
    XGID=----a-E-D-AAbD---d-c-bc---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 53

    X is well behind in the pip count and his top priority is to contain
    O's straggler. If O's straggler escapes then X will be in a lot of
    trouble. The six-away point therefore has elevated value. The 5pt
    will be valuable if X manages to hit O, but that's not the top
    priority in this position.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/3 eq:-0.117
    Player: 39.37% (G:3.58% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 60.63% (G:10.25% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.125..-0.109) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/6 eq:-0.163 (-0.046)
    Player: 36.41% (G:2.15% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 63.59% (G:5.15% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.169..-0.157) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.194 (-0.077)
    Player: 36.61% (G:2.66% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 63.39% (G:9.40% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.200..-0.187) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/5 eq:-0.196 (-0.079)
    Player: 35.59% (G:3.38% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 64.41% (G:8.19% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.203..-0.190) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Apr 2 13:42:29 2022
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer. I haven't looked at the problem but I'd have no problem betting good money the 10pt is correct otherwise it wouldn't have been saved/posted/brought up. It's not like a 'bar point or
    the 5pt' problem. It's much more random and to come out of the blue like that ... well, I'm making the 10pt blind.

    Just now I checked Google Groups and found a few possible parallels.

    There was one problem where I said, "5pt, 10pt, or hit?" The answer
    was to hit.

    There were three problems of the form "5pt or 9pt?" In two cases the
    answer was to make the 9pt and in one case the answer was to make the
    10pt.

    I bring this up not because Stick will admit that he's wrong, since
    he never admits that he's wrong. I bring it up for the entertainment
    value of seeing Stick come up with a feeble rebuttal. Stick may not be
    the #1 Giant but he gets my vote for #1 when it comes to making up
    excuses for the nonsense he spouts.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 2 13:43:15 2022
    On 4/2/2022 1:42 PM, I wrote:

    There were three problems of the form "5pt or 9pt?"  In two cases the
    answer was to make the 9pt and in one case the answer was to make the
    10pt.

    Whoops...I meant that in one case the answer was to make the 5pt.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Apr 4 02:45:44 2022
    On Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 9:21:31 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/29/2022 9:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 29, 2022 at 8:59:38 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer.
    If you like, I can re-institute the hash functions to prove that
    you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    With such a violent answer I must be right. And again, the experiment can't be done when the person posting knows that I'm on the other end guessing based on their title. Don't be silly.
    As usual, going down in flames when your bluff is called. I know that
    you're guessing every one of my problems based on the title, whether or
    not I have a hash value attached, so it would not change the
    experimental conditions in the slightest.

    You remind me of Murat, actually. He's convinced that he can predict
    GNUBG's dice. The same psychological effect is happening here, where
    you manage to convince yourself that your random guesses demonstrate
    your genius. And when a formal test is proposed, you duck out, because
    you know you're talking nonsense.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    There is no way to keep you from altering titles/creating titles based on the fact that you know I'd be doing it. You had no idea I'd been doing it for years. Now you do. If you can't see the difference there's nothing I can do for you.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Apr 4 02:47:23 2022
    On Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 1:42:32 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/28/2022 5:05 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is a great example of where the title gives away the answer. I haven't looked at the problem but I'd have no problem betting good money the 10pt is correct otherwise it wouldn't have been saved/posted/brought up. It's not like a 'bar point or
    the 5pt' problem. It's much more random and to come out of the blue like that ... well, I'm making the 10pt blind.
    Just now I checked Google Groups and found a few possible parallels.

    There was one problem where I said, "5pt, 10pt, or hit?" The answer
    was to hit.

    There were three problems of the form "5pt or 9pt?" In two cases the
    answer was to make the 9pt and in one case the answer was to make the
    10pt.

    I bring this up not because Stick will admit that he's wrong, since
    he never admits that he's wrong. I bring it up for the entertainment
    value of seeing Stick come up with a feeble rebuttal. Stick may not be
    the #1 Giant but he gets my vote for #1 when it comes to making up
    excuses for the nonsense he spouts.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The 9pt or 5pt is a hell of a lot more common than the 5pt or 10pt. How can you not understand that? And with the 5pt/10pt/hit there is a third option and all I'd have been sure of there is making the 5pt is wrong.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Tue Apr 5 08:37:10 2022
    On 4/4/2022 5:45 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

    There is no way to keep you from altering titles/creating titles based on the fact that you know I'd be doing it. You had no idea I'd been doing it for years. Now you do. If you can't see the difference there's nothing I can do for you.

    *Now* I do? You've been making this empty boast for years.
    You think I haven't noticed? Why did I post those 30+ hash
    function problems then?

    If I had any doubts about my #1 vote, they are dispelled now.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Apr 5 13:06:27 2022
    On Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:37:14 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 4/4/2022 5:45 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

    There is no way to keep you from altering titles/creating titles based on the fact that you know I'd be doing it. You had no idea I'd been doing it for years. Now you do. If you can't see the difference there's nothing I can do for you.
    *Now* I do? You've been making this empty boast for years.
    You think I haven't noticed? Why did I post those 30+ hash
    function problems then?

    If I had any doubts about my #1 vote, they are dispelled now.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I have no idea what those "30+ has function problems" even were. I don't read it when I realize it is garbage any more, esp. if it's long.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)