It's another one of my no-rollout posts, but I really don't see
the rationale for XG's 24/23* at all.
I don't want to be hit.
24/23* just seems a really dumbass play.
I disintegrate my board and make myself more likely to be hit
while XG merrily dances hoping to hit me again.

Can anyone explain why 24/23* is a better idea than looking
for a patisserie that sells chocolate eclairs in rural Texas?

Thank You.

Paul

XGID=-BCDCaB----------bcbbbbaA-:1:1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O O | | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 68 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

1. XG Roller+ 24/23* 6/1 eq:-0.979
Player: 6.75% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 93.25% (G:13.81% B:0.36%)

2. XG Roller+ 6/1 3/2 eq:-1.001 (-0.023)
Player: 5.33% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 94.67% (G:12.42% B:0.31%)

3. 4-ply 6/1 6/5* eq:-0.981 (-0.003)
Player: 5.54% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 94.46% (G:10.98% B:0.33%)

4. 4-ply 6/1 2/1 eq:-0.991 (-0.012)
Player: 5.65% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 94.35% (G:12.20% B:0.37%)

5. 3-ply 6/1 4/3 eq:-0.989 (-0.010)
Player: 5.73% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 94.27% (G:12.26% B:0.38%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 3/27/2022 8:47 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Can anyone explain why 24/23* is a better idea than looking
for a patisserie that sells chocolate eclairs in rural Texas?

I don't have a full explanation, but one thing to be aware of is
that as far as just winning the game is concerned, you'd actually
like to get hit and anchor. See for example the position below,
where I've changed from a money game to DMP, and O rolls a 51
after you make XG's play of 24/23* 6/1.

This isn't a full explanation because in a money game, you lose
more gammons if a second checker is hit. However, you have to
expose a blot on your 6pt regardless. If you hit O's checker
on her 2pt then your chances of anchoring improve since you
interfere with O's ability to make her 2pt.

XGID=aCCDCaA----------bcbbbbA--:0:0:-1:51:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O O | | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 62 O: 118 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
O to play 51

1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 7/6 eq:+0.896
Player: 94.82% (G:5.68% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 5.18% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)

2. XG Roller++ Bar/19* eq:+0.812 (-0.084)
Player: 90.60% (G:22.04% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 9.40% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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