In the position below, I found the play clear.
However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
I think most players would prefer my position,
and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

How am I acting as an unreliable narrator?
There are (at least) two sources of unreliability as follows:
1) I haven't done a rollout.
2) Maybe I'm wrong about what people would expect and
everyone prefers XG's position after my play.

Mr. Unrelliable

XGID=aDDBA-B---b--B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:6:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:6 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 97 X-O: 6-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. 4-ply 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.078
Player: 55.65% (G:5.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 44.35% (G:21.08% B:1.35%)

2. 4-ply 13/3 eq:-0.122 (-0.043)
Player: 50.23% (G:4.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 49.77% (G:13.84% B:0.42%)

3. 1-ply 13/7 6/2 eq:-1.390 (-1.312)
Player: 20.39% (G:1.90% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.61% (G:65.61% B:5.26%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

In the position below, I found the play clear.
However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
I think most players would prefer my position,
and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
after your play.

XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116

Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
Double/Beaver: -0.276
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)

Best Cube action: Double / Beaver

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:07:50 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

In the position below, I found the play clear.
However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
I think most players would prefer my position,
and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
after your play.

XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116

Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
Double/Beaver: -0.276
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)

Best Cube action: Double / Beaver

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

In practice, it's probably quite a big double because the opponent might not beaver.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)