1. Forum
  2. Usenet
  3. REC.GAMES.BACKGAMMON

  • Blitz versus prime cube action 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Mar 23 09:21:55 2022
    XGID=bBB-BBCAA--------bcbbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Mar 25 08:44:13 2022
    XGID=bBB-BBCAA--------bcbbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    X has serious chances of winning a gammon, but he needs to roll a 6
    soon or his forward position is going to collapse. Despite the gammons,
    this is a very easy take for O, and the question is whether X has enough
    spare pips to double. XG's answer is a resounding yes, but see the
    variant.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 62.09% (G:31.95% B:0.32%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.91% (G:7.90% B:0.32%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 62.20% (G:32.15% B:0.31%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.80% (G:8.02% B:0.33%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.465 (-0.171)
    Double/Take: +0.636
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.364)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.453..+0.478)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.620..+0.652)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=bBB-CCC----------bcbbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 95 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 56.10% (G:26.32% B:0.24%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 43.90% (G:9.32% B:0.33%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 56.27% (G:25.88% B:0.24%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 43.73% (G:9.36% B:0.32%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.232
    Double/Take: +0.195 (-0.037)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.768)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.4%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.221..+0.243)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.179..+0.211)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 2 10:14:30 2023
    XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 84 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Jan 2 11:32:37 2023
    On Monday, January 2, 2023 at 3:14:32 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 84 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    This is a tough one. I don't think it's TG with being trapped behind a 5 prime and having a somewhat porous
    board. Huge double for sure, but is it a pass or a take?
    I think it's a pass. We hope to attack the opponent's checkers when they enter. And two on the bar with four away
    from the inner board give us gammon chances.
    I don't think our winning chances are above 75% but our gammon chances lead me to think it's a pass.
    No confidence though.

    I seem to remember a John Pilger film campaigning for nuclear disarmament where two of the principals
    are enacting a war-game scenario and the dialogue is something like: "Confidence high?"
    "My confidence is high. Is your confidence high?"
    "Yes, confidence high."
    I'll try and find out more by googling.

    Anyway, my confidence is anything but high. Super super low.
    But I will go with D/P.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Jan 3 16:06:57 2023
    On 1/2/2023 10:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O  O  X     O |
     |             O  O |   | O  O  O        O |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |          X       |
     |                  | O | X        X       |
     |                  |   | X        X       | +---+
     |                  |   | X     X  X     X | | 2 |
     |                  |   | X     X  X     X | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 84  O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    O loses a fair amount of gammons here, but X needs a six and fairly
    soon. Also, X may be forced to leave a shot in his homeboard and if O
    sends a second checker back X is in trouble.

    I'll say ship it due to the 11 immediate market losers. Don't think it's
    TG since five primes can be very resilient. Not sure about the take
    decision, but I'll say take since X's structure is so poor and O may own
    the outfield in a few rolls.

    RD/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 4 07:43:09 2023
    XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 84 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    O is certainly in some trouble here, with two checkers on the bar
    against a four-point board, and two dead checkers on her 1pt. Her
    main hope lies in her superior structure---she has a five-prime of
    course, but X also has three semi-dead checkers on his 3pt. X may
    collapse if he can't leap the five-prime, or even if he does leap,
    the win isn't guaranteed---it's not so easy for him to close out O,
    and if O enters quickly then O might hit a blot.

    According to the rollout, this is a RD/T. In the variant, I have
    moved a spare from X's 3pt to his 6pt; this rolls out to a pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 68.96% (G:20.60% B:0.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.04% (G:4.39% B:0.16%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.11% (G:20.75% B:0.21%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.89% (G:4.33% B:0.16%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.716 (-0.135)
    Redouble/Take: +0.851
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.149)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.706..+0.727)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.837..+0.865)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=bB-DB-E------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 87 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 71.41% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.59% (G:3.65% B:0.12%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 71.73% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.27% (G:3.61% B:0.12%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.825 (-0.175)
    Redouble/Take: +1.044 (+0.044)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.818..+0.832)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.033..+1.056)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Jan 4 10:41:28 2023
    On Wednesday, January 4, 2023 at 12:43:11 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 84 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    O is certainly in some trouble here, with two checkers on the bar
    against a four-point board, and two dead checkers on her 1pt. Her
    main hope lies in her superior structure---she has a five-prime of
    course, but X also has three semi-dead checkers on his 3pt. X may
    collapse if he can't leap the five-prime, or even if he does leap,
    the win isn't guaranteed---it's not so easy for him to close out O,
    and if O enters quickly then O might hit a blot.

    According to the rollout, this is a RD/T. In the variant, I have
    moved a spare from X's 3pt to his 6pt; this rolls out to a pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 68.96% (G:20.60% B:0.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.04% (G:4.39% B:0.16%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 69.11% (G:20.75% B:0.21%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 30.89% (G:4.33% B:0.16%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.716 (-0.135)
    Redouble/Take: +0.851
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.149)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.706..+0.727)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.837..+0.865)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=bB-DB-E------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 87 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 71.41% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.59% (G:3.65% B:0.12%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 71.73% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.27% (G:3.61% B:0.12%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.825 (-0.175)
    Redouble/Take: +1.044 (+0.044)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.818..+0.832)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.033..+1.056)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    As often, I like the way ah..Clem thought about the position.
    He seems more or less spot on.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jan 18 08:41:48 2024
    XGID=aBBCBaB--A--b-a--bbdbBA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X |
    | O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jan 20 14:32:49 2024
    XGID=aBBCBaB--A--b-a--bbdbBA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X |
    | O O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Compared to the previous position, X's back checkers are better
    poised to jump over O's prime, but O has entered one checker from
    the bar. Entering a checker is huge. The rollout verdict here is
    big double, big take.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 61.40% (G:41.34% B:0.56%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.60% (G:8.63% B:0.41%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 61.64% (G:41.51% B:0.52%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.36% (G:8.74% B:0.41%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.569 (-0.208)
    Double/Take: +0.777
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.223)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.554..+0.584)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.757..+0.798)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)