So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
On 3/22/2022 4:46 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.At first I didn't see your "no-contact" proviso, so I came
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
up with the position below, which I think is interesting in
its own right. I'll have to think more about your actual
question later.
XGID=aBBBBBBA-AA-----------bcd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 68 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.922
Redouble/Take: +0.908 (-0.013)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.7%
Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.918..+0.925)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.905..+0.912)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
On Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 1:32:23 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
On 3/22/2022 4:46 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.At first I didn't see your "no-contact" proviso, so I came
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
up with the position below, which I think is interesting in
its own right. I'll have to think more about your actual
question later.
XGID=aBBBBBBA-AA-----------bcd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X X X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 68 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.922
Redouble/Take: +0.908 (-0.013)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.7%
Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.918..+0.925)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.905..+0.912)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-releaseI would hold this one too, and the equity is also in line with what I would have thought.
It's clearly possible for the opponent to get a shot and hit a shot, and it seems well worth it
to avoid this risk by holding.
Paul
On 3/22/2022 4:46 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.I think your best bet will be a long race. Perhaps
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
surprisingly, XG doesn't play long races very well, so I
don't entirely trust the rollout below. But it illustrates
the general idea.
XGID=------CCCBCA-abccbbb------:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O O O | | O |
| O O O O O | | O |
| O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X X | | X | +---+
| X X X X | | X | | 2 |
| X X X X X | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 74.23% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.24% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.805
Redouble/Take: +0.802 (-0.004)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.195)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.799..+0.812)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.792..+0.811)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
On 3/22/2022 4:46 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
So it inspires a rather obvious construction problem.At first I didn't see your "no-contact" proviso, so I came
In a money game in a no-contact position, if a player
owns the cube and is on-roll and the correct play is ND/T,
what is the on-roll player's maximum equity?
up with the position below, which I think is interesting in
its own right. I'll have to think more about your actual
question later.
XGID=aBBBBBBA-AA-----------bcd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 68 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.922
Redouble/Take: +0.908 (-0.013)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.7%
Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.918..+0.925)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.905..+0.912)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
I love the word "proviso" here.
It's an excellent word choice, and I don't think I would have thought of it.
On 3/23/2022 4:36 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I love the word "proviso" here.One somewhat obscure word that I like to use sometimes is "procrustean."
It's an excellent word choice, and I don't think I would have thought of it.
In today's bureaucratized world, "procrustean" is all too often a disturbingly accurate description of many rules and actions that we
face on a daily basis, and there is no other word that captures exactly
the same nuance.
I wonder if you have seen this XKCD comic:
https://xkcd.com/2591/
The word "procrustean" is one I've seen many times before.
However, when I googled the definition, I see it means nothing
close to what I thought it meant. I thought it meant something like "ancient".
On 3/24/2022 4:43 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The word "procrustean" is one I've seen many times before.I could imagine coming to that conclusion based on the word "crusty,"
However, when I googled the definition, I see it means nothing
close to what I thought it meant. I thought it meant something like "ancient".
which is commonly used in the phrase "crusty old man," along with words
like "primordial" and "primeval."
In case you didn't discover this from Googling, the word derives from
the legend of Procrustes. Once you hear that legend, you're unlikely
to forget it.
On the topic of words that don't mean what some people think they mean,
I recall someone who thought the word "swarthy" meant "muscular." This
may be because the term is often used to describe an attractive man, so
if you don't know what the word means, you might make the wrong guess
about what feature is being singled out for admiration.
For example, some people think the phrase is "It's a doggie-dog world" rather than "It's a dog-eat-dog world".
I used to think people said "For all intensive purposes" instead of "For all intents and purposes."
At my school, one of the corridors was referred to as "the covered way" and some people thought it was
"the cupboard way".
On Friday, March 25, 2022 at 11:48:31 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:This is the piece: https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/great-buildup-pity-about-the-punchline-2324645.html
On 3/24/2022 10:30 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
For example, some people think the phrase is "It's a doggie-dog world" rather than "It's a dog-eat-dog world".There is a database of these here:
I used to think people said "For all intensive purposes" instead of "For all intents and purposes."
At my school, one of the corridors was referred to as "the covered way" and some people thought it was
"the cupboard way".
https://eggcorns.lascribe.net/browse-eggcorns
It includes the first two of your three examples. See also the book,
"The Ants are My Friends," by Martin Toseland. The title of this book
is a mondegreen from Bob Dylan's "Blowing in the Wind."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondegreen#EtymologyThe "doggy-dog" one was given by William Leith as an example to show that something funny doesn't necessarily
make a workable joke.
Leith was at some social gathering where people took it in turn to tell jokes. So he thought "What's the funniest thing
that ever happened to me?" The incident that came to mind was that a friend said "Yes, it's a doggy-dog world." meaning "dog-eat-dog".
Then he realised that it wouldn't make a good joke, and was stuck while trying to think of something else.
Paul Epstein
On 3/24/2022 10:30 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
For example, some people think the phrase is "It's a doggie-dog world" rather than "It's a dog-eat-dog world".There is a database of these here:
I used to think people said "For all intensive purposes" instead of "For all intents and purposes."
At my school, one of the corridors was referred to as "the covered way" and some people thought it was
"the cupboard way".
https://eggcorns.lascribe.net/browse-eggcorns
It includes the first two of your three examples. See also the book,
"The Ants are My Friends," by Martin Toseland. The title of this book
is a mondegreen from Bob Dylan's "Blowing in the Wind."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondegreen#Etymology
On 3/24/2022 4:43 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The word "procrustean" is one I've seen many times before.I could imagine coming to that conclusion based on the word "crusty,"
However, when I googled the definition, I see it means nothing
close to what I thought it meant. I thought it meant something like "ancient".
which is commonly used in the phrase "crusty old man," along with words
like "primordial" and "primeval."
In case you didn't discover this from Googling, the word derives from
the legend of Procrustes. Once you hear that legend, you're unlikely
to forget it.
On the topic of words that don't mean what some people think they mean,
I recall someone who thought the word "swarthy" meant "muscular." This
may be because the term is often used to describe an attractive man, so
if you don't know what the word means, you might make the wrong guess
about what feature is being singled out for admiration.
"Lin Yutang, a Chinese American writer whose book My Country and My People was a bestseller
thanks to Pearl Buck’s sponsorship, was a vocal critic of Richards’s Basic English and criticised
the attempt to abolish hanzi, describing it as an act of trimming the foot to fit the shoe."
Of course, he should have said "The attempt to abolish hanzi is procrustean."
On 4/7/2022 2:04 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
"Lin Yutang, a Chinese American writer whose book My Country and My >People was a bestsellerRichards’s Basic English and criticised
thanks to Pearl Buck’s sponsorship, was a vocal critic of
the attempt to abolish hanzi, describing it as an act of trimming thefoot to fit the shoe."
Of course, he should have said "The attempt to abolish hanzi is procrustean."
Well, as you may have guessed, there is a Chinese saying (or "chengyu") >削足适履 that literally means to trim the foot to fit the shoe. But yes, >"procrustean" is an excellent translation of that saying into English.
Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:....
On 4/7/2022 2:04 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
"Lin Yutang, a Chinese American writer whose book My Country and My >People was a bestsellerRichards’s Basic English and criticised
thanks to Pearl Buck’s sponsorship, was a vocal critic of
the attempt to abolish hanzi, describing it as an act of trimming the >foot to fit the shoe."
Of course, he should have said "The attempt to abolish hanzi is procrustean."
Well, as you may have guessed, there is a Chinese saying (or "chengyu") >削足适履 that literally means to trim the foot to fit the shoe. But yes,The Brothers Grimm version of the Cinderella story has Cinderella's stepsisters cutting off parts of their feet in an attempt to convince
"procrustean" is an excellent translation of that saying into English.
the Prince that the lost slipper fits them. Fortunately (for
Cinderella) doves alert the Prince to the slipper filling with
blood.
On 4/7/2022 2:04 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
"Lin Yutang, a Chinese American writer whose book My Country and My People was a bestsellerWell, as you may have guessed, there is a Chinese saying (or "chengyu") 削足适履 that literally means to trim the foot to fit the shoe. But yes, "procrustean" is an excellent translation of that saying into English.
thanks to Pearl Buck’s sponsorship, was a vocal critic of Richards’s Basic English and criticised
the attempt to abolish hanzi, describing it as an act of trimming the foot to fit the shoe."
Of course, he should have said "The attempt to abolish hanzi is procrustean."
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