XGID=-A-aBbDBCa--a---Ab-bcb-aB-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

Don't really have anything to add to Paul's analysis. Despite O's
anchor and strong board, X's best game plan here is to blitz. In a
blitz, it is often better to make another home-board point rather
than hit a second checker, but usually not when it's a deep point
behind the opponent's anchor. After 16/12* 7/3*(2), lifting with
12/8 is also the wrong idea, since X should be focusing on the
upside and not the downside.

1. Rollout¹ 16/12* 8/4 7/3*(2) eq:+0.541
Player: 56.38% (G:37.54% B:2.03%)
Opponent: 43.62% (G:13.83% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.529..+0.553) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/12* 12/8 7/3*(2) eq:+0.323 (-0.218)
Player: 50.55% (G:27.98% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 49.45% (G:14.94% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.306..+0.339) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/12* 7/3*(2) 6/2 eq:+0.258 (-0.283)
Player: 50.07% (G:30.31% B:1.70%)
Opponent: 49.93% (G:19.04% B:1.83%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.245..+0.271) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.231 (-0.310)
Player: 46.87% (G:27.79% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 53.13% (G:19.67% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.215..+0.247) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----a-EbD---bD--Bbacbb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

It's tempting to PoH here, or perhaps make the 5pt. At gammon go,
XG does play 13/9(2) 8/4*(2). However, there's another strategy
available, which can be hard to see if you're not used to looking
for it: 13/9(4)! The idea is that X is ahead in the race and so
should keep open the racing game plan. Attacking is committal,
leaving X somewhat stripped, and vulnerable to getting hit back
within the next few turns. 13/9(4) does not rule out attacking
and priming in the future if the dice allow it, but carries less
risk, and gives X the best chance of winning just by racing.

I don't understand atilamalcok's comment that if the cube were
turned then the errors would be as low as 20 per thousand, because
that's not what XG tells me. But I like the variant, which both
decreases X's racing advantage and weakens O's counterattacking
chances.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9(4) eq:+0.345
Player: 60.52% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 39.48% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.335..+0.354) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.205 (-0.140)
Player: 56.20% (G:5.55% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 43.80% (G:5.94% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.194..+0.215) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq:+0.201 (-0.144)
Player: 55.86% (G:10.48% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 44.14% (G:10.70% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.188..+0.213) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.172 (-0.173)
Player: 54.96% (G:8.15% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 45.04% (G:9.31% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.161..+0.183) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.144 (-0.201)
Player: 54.08% (G:10.69% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 45.92% (G:11.21% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.132..+0.156) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---a-BD-B--AdDa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

I tried hitting here, but X has only nine checkers in the zone and the
race is pretty much even. XG prefers the "15-against-1" containment
strategy. But see also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.456
Player: 62.30% (G:10.18% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 37.70% (G:6.10% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.444..+0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.348 (-0.108)
Player: 56.39% (G:18.99% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:5.74% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.335..+0.361) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.301 (-0.155)
Player: 55.88% (G:17.49% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 44.12% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.290..+0.311) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.297 (-0.159)
Player: 54.24% (G:20.19% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 45.76% (G:6.44% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.286..+0.308) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---a-CC-C--AdCa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.413
Player: 57.38% (G:25.31% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 42.62% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.406..+0.419) - [63.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.002)
Player: 60.44% (G:12.68% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 39.56% (G:7.88% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.404..+0.418) - [36.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.379 (-0.033)
Player: 57.89% (G:17.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 42.11% (G:5.09% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/5 eq:+0.371 (-0.041)
Player: 59.89% (G:9.20% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 40.11% (G:5.07% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.366..+0.377) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 8:49:29 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---a-BD-B--AdDa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
I tried hitting here, but X has only nine checkers in the zone and the
race is pretty much even. XG prefers the "15-against-1" containment strategy. But see also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.456
Player: 62.30% (G:10.18% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 37.70% (G:6.10% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.444..+0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.348 (-0.108)
Player: 56.39% (G:18.99% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:5.74% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.335..+0.361) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.301 (-0.155)
Player: 55.88% (G:17.49% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 44.12% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.290..+0.311) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.297 (-0.159)
Player: 54.24% (G:20.19% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 45.76% (G:6.44% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.286..+0.308) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---a-CC-C--AdCa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
1. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.413
Player: 57.38% (G:25.31% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 42.62% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.406..+0.419) - [63.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.002)
Player: 60.44% (G:12.68% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 39.56% (G:7.88% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.404..+0.418) - [36.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.379 (-0.033)
Player: 57.89% (G:17.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 42.11% (G:5.09% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/5 eq:+0.371 (-0.041)
Player: 59.89% (G:9.20% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 40.11% (G:5.07% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.366..+0.377) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too
much has changed.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way

too much has changed.


Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
of variants.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way

too much has changed.

Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
of variants.

---
Tim Chow

It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/7/2023 10:58 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way

too much has changed.

Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
of variants.

---
Tim Chow

It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.

It's not about backgammon per se, but about the variety of ways to study
a subject.

I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain
arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
the subject. The wisest instructors recognize that there are as many
ways to approach learning a subject as there are students.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, 11 November 2023 at 15:50:44 UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain
arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
the subject.
---
Tim Chow

Yep, there's your problem.

Right there.

You live at home with "mom" and are a virgin, right?

So, deal with my last sentence and then come back here when you've gone beyond solo handjobs and tissues.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 10:50:44 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 11/7/2023 10:58 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way

too much has changed.

Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
of variants.

---
Tim Chow

It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.

It's not about backgammon per se, but about the variety of ways to study
a subject.

I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
the subject. The wisest instructors recognize that there are as many
ways to approach learning a subject as there are students.

---
Tim Chow

I certainly understand there are many ways to skin a cat, that's to say there's more than one way to sheer a sheep, that's to say there's more than one way to skip a stone, that's to say...you get the point. However, you have to admit some ways are just
plain wrong lol

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/12/2023 3:15 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

I certainly understand there are many ways to skin a cat, that's to say there's more than one way to sheer a sheep, that's to say there's more than one way to skip a stone, that's to say...you get the point. However, you have to admit some ways are

just plain wrong lol

I agree that the variant I posted changed many variables at once.
Does that automatically make it a terrible variant? No. I didn't
state exactly what conclusion I, or anyone else, should draw from
it. Sometimes when one play in the rollout comes way ahead of the
alternatives, no 'small' change is going to change which play comes
out on top. In such cases, if I'm interested in why my instincts are
so far off and what it would take to put my whopper-with-cheese play
on top, I have to make a major change to the position. Once I find a
position that finally swings the play, then I have two "bookends,"
between which I can explore the relative importance of various factors
in the position.

Understanding the relationship between two positions which differ in
many factors is something one has to do all the time in backgammon.
Even if one memorizes many reference positions, it will be rare that
a reference position differs from your current position in just one
respect. You'll have to weigh the relative importance of several
factors. By the same token, when exploring variants of a given position,
one needs to consider many possibilities. When I post a variant, there's
no implication that it's the only interesting variant, or that only one
factor has changed. It's just one interesting variant of many that I
found, and that I thought others might find interesting too.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)