11 Mayıs 2022 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:24:46 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
XGID=----a-EbD---bD--Bbacbb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
At first glance, I focused on three moves. But all three are wrong. Let's face it, it's a provocative position to attack.
Meanwhile, if the cube had been turned, the errors would be as low as 20 per thousand.
I guess the key is the oppenent's strong homeboard and accordingly which game plan X will choose? Race, attack or prime?
To understand this, I shifted the opponent's two checkers from 21 to 23 and gave her a weaker homeboard structure that was prone to attack.
Both 13/9(4) and 13/9(2), 8/4*(2) keep all three game plans alive. But weakening the opponent's homeboard is the only thing that will compensate for the possibility of leaving a blot after 13/9(2), 8/4*(2)
Variant
XGID=----a-EbD---bD--Bbacb--b--:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
1. Rollout¹ 13/9(4) eq:+0,256
Player: 57,65% (G:3,91% B:0,12%)
Opponent: 42,35% (G:2,91% B:0,09%)
Confidence: ±0,007 (+0,249..+0,263) - [87,4%]
Duration: 26 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq:+0,249 (-0,006)
Player: 57,25% (G:9,30% B:0,39%)
Opponent: 42,75% (G:8,66% B:0,23%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,241..+0,257) - [12,6%]
Duration: 24 minutes 29 seconds
3. Rollout² 8/4*(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0,189 (-0,066)
Player: 55,21% (G:10,97% B:0,52%)
Opponent: 44,79% (G:10,27% B:0,28%)
Confidence: ±0,020 (+0,169..+0,210) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
4. Rollout² 13/5(2) eq:+0,177 (-0,078)
Player: 54,96% (G:6,26% B:0,27%)
Opponent: 45,04% (G:6,21% B:0,15%)
Confidence: ±0,019 (+0,158..+0,197) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
5. 3-ply 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0,143 (-0,113)
Player: 54,95% (G:6,90% B:0,19%)
Opponent: 45,05% (G:7,35% B:0,07%)
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
² 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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