From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Mar 19 09:14:52 2022
XGID=-Ba-C-B-C---cC--bcBca--b--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
At first, the conditions look favorable for a hit. X has made his 1pt,
which means his position is more suited to attacking than priming. O
has a weak board, so X is not too worried about getting hit back. And
what is X going to do with that dilly builder anyway?
However, XG says it's a massive blunder to hit. Its recommended play
of 13/9 8/6 is not a priming play per se; given the opportunity, X may
well attack next turn. The trouble with 4/2* is that X doesn't have a
lot of covering numbers even if O dances, and although getting hit back
is not a disaster, it's still something X would rather not happen. See
the variant below for comparison.
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 eq:+0.283
Player: 55.86% (G:16.40% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 44.14% (G:9.02% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.273..+0.294) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 4/2* eq:+0.143 (-0.141)
Player: 52.68% (G:16.78% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 47.32% (G:11.42% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.130..+0.156) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC--bcBca--b--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/2* eq:+0.273
Player: 54.78% (G:19.66% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 45.22% (G:11.26% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.266..+0.281) - [99.1%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.262 (-0.011)
Player: 55.63% (G:16.26% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.37% (G:9.07% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.256..+0.268) - [0.9%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)