• Anchor or not?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Mar 13 08:54:02 2022
    XGID=---BBBBB----bB-cAb-e--Ac-A:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Mar 13 20:37:17 2022
    On Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 8:54:05 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=---BBBBB----bB-cAb-e--Ac-A:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Dmp.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 15 07:54:14 2022
    XGID=---BBBBB----bB-cAb-e--Ac-A:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X O | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    Norm Wiggins wrote a book called, "Boards, Blots, and Double Shots," in
    which he coined the term "boardage" to mean having at least two more
    home-board points made than your opponent has. When you have boardage,
    it's time to look for bold, pure plays. Here, there is no urgent need
    for X to anchor; he should stay back on the 24pt for more contact.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 16/13 eq:-0.317
    Player: 45.87% (G:11.24% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 54.13% (G:12.04% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.327..-0.308) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 7/6 eq:-0.417 (-0.100)
    Player: 41.91% (G:8.36% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 58.09% (G:7.01% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.426..-0.408) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/10 eq:-0.419 (-0.102)
    Player: 44.48% (G:12.35% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 55.52% (G:20.71% B:1.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.429..-0.409) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Apr 17 09:17:12 2022
    XGID=-a--B-BBBAB-bB--dc-c-b-A-A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Apr 19 08:30:09 2022
    XGID=-a--B-BBBAB-bB--dc-c-b-A-A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    The subject line is slightly devious because the real conundrum for
    most players is whether to slot the 5pt. Yes, says XG. But I did
    not consider slotting OTB.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 10/5 eq:-0.157
    Player: 47.60% (G:11.35% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 52.40% (G:17.50% B:1.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.172..-0.142) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.233 (-0.076)
    Player: 44.69% (G:10.80% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 55.31% (G:15.65% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.248..-0.217) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.238 (-0.081)
    Player: 46.14% (G:10.48% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 53.86% (G:20.83% B:1.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.254..-0.223) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/20 9/7 eq:-0.258 (-0.101)
    Player: 44.80% (G:10.89% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 55.20% (G:18.58% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.274..-0.242) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Apr 20 13:36:30 2022
    On Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:30:12 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--B-BBBAB-bB--dc-c-b-A-A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52
    The subject line is slightly devious because the real conundrum for
    most players is whether to slot the 5pt. Yes, says XG. But I did
    not consider slotting OTB.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 10/5 eq:-0.157
    Player: 47.60% (G:11.35% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 52.40% (G:17.50% B:1.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.172..-0.142) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.233 (-0.076)
    Player: 44.69% (G:10.80% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 55.31% (G:15.65% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.248..-0.217) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.238 (-0.081)
    Player: 46.14% (G:10.48% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 53.86% (G:20.83% B:1.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.254..-0.223) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/20 9/7 eq:-0.258 (-0.101)
    Player: 44.80% (G:10.89% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 55.20% (G:18.58% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.274..-0.242) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    How did you not consider slotting? I mean that seriously, not sarcastically. After looking for two seconds I saw the two was *forced so I played bar/23. After that there are not a lot of reasonable fives to consider. Have to look at them all.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Apr 21 09:12:44 2022
    On 4/20/2022 4:36 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    How did you not consider slotting?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYOES3zZDu0&t=590s

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)