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  • 7-away/2-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 8 16:57:25 2022
    XGID=-a--BCC-a---dD---c-c-b-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | X | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 144 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Mar 10 13:30:16 2022
    XGID=-a--BCC-a---dD---c-c-b-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | X | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 144 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I don't think too many people would double this one OTB, so QF would
    suggest that the bot doubles here. But no; see the rollout below.
    On the other hand, XG says that I missed a double on the previous
    roll (scroll down for the rollout).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 50.05% (G:18.25% B:0.67%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 49.95% (G:17.07% B:2.02%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 50.64% (G:18.25% B:0.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 49.36% (G:18.65% B:2.23%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.271
    Double/Take: +0.207 (-0.063)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.729)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.255..+0.286)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.191..+0.224)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------------
    Previous roll
    -------------

    XGID=-a-aBBC-A--AdD---c-cab--AA:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 156 O: 153 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 57.32% (G:20.84% B:1.08%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 42.68% (G:13.43% B:2.55%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 57.69% (G:21.49% B:1.07%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 42.31% (G:14.56% B:2.84%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.542 (-0.110)
    Double/Take: +0.652
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.348)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.529..+0.556)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.636..+0.669)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---------
    Next roll
    ---------

    XGID=---aBCC-a---dD---c-bab-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | X | X | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 141 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 53.34% (G:22.11% B:1.35%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.66% (G:14.89% B:2.13%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 53.66% (G:21.97% B:1.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.34% (G:15.68% B:1.85%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.410 (-0.074)
    Double/Take: +0.484
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.516)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.395..+0.425)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.466..+0.502)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 17 09:56:43 2023
    XGID=-a----EDCa--dB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Feb 17 10:51:47 2023
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 9:56:46 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----EDCa--dB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    For money I would think this is not quite a double. Our only advantage is the race and a chance to hit the blot followed with several return shots, and we still have to escape the back checker. I would double after getting him out of there.
    At 4 away 2 away this must be a solid double given the gammon value and doubling efficiency, and it is probably still a double at this score. The closer call may be whether to take. Because it looks like a position without high gammons for X, as O I
    would take the cube.

    Bob

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri Feb 17 15:37:00 2023
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 1:51:48 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 9:56:46 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----EDCa--dB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    For money I would think this is not quite a double. Our only advantage is the race and a chance to hit the blot followed with several return shots, and we still have to escape the back checker. I would double after getting him out of there.
    At 4 away 2 away this must be a solid double given the gammon value and doubling efficiency, and it is probably still a double at this score. The closer call may be whether to take. Because it looks like a position without high gammons for X, as O I
    would take the cube.

    Bob

    At 4a 2a this should be a massive pass. Our advantage is not only the race and shot at the blot but our offensive position with the bar point already made and spares poised to make higher inner board points with almost half our rolls. (along with many
    men in the zone should an accidental blitz occur, which might happen more often than you think, the obv to get it started being immediate double 2s, 4s, 5s, 6s)

    This is near referencey for money being a pointless double. Pretty sure I wrote an article on them at one point in time for gammonvillage.

    Stick

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Mon Feb 20 10:00:22 2023
    On 2/17/2023 6:37 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is near referencey for money being a pointless double. Pretty sure I wrote an article on them at one point in time for gammonvillage.

    Yes, on 28 January 2013. I don't see anything in that article that
    is particularly close to the position I posted, but maybe the closest
    is the position below.

    XGID=-aa---EBC-AAd----c-eAA-aA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X X O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 154 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Feb 20 14:00:55 2023
    On Monday, February 20, 2023 at 10:00:24 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 2/17/2023 6:37 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is near referencey for money being a pointless double. Pretty sure I wrote an article on them at one point in time for gammonvillage.
    Yes, on 28 January 2013. I don't see anything in that article that
    is particularly close to the position I posted, but maybe the closest
    is the position below.

    XGID=-aa---EBC-AAd----c-eAA-aA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X X O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 154 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I wasn't suggesting that in the article itself there was something resembling this position only that I had written an article about pointless doubles. Haven't the faintest clue what positions I used but for every position used there are at least five
    that aren't.

    Stick

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 21 10:13:51 2023
    XGID=-a----EDCa--dB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I think most people can see that this is a take for money, but the
    question is whether it's a take ATS. The raw take point is about
    22% and X's gammon value on a 2-cube is slightly elevated. According
    to the rollout below, it's a clear pass. In the variant, I have moved
    a checker from X's 8pt to his midpoint, and the rollout indicates a
    borderline take/pass decision.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 67.16% (G:22.34% B:0.55%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.84% (G:5.41% B:0.46%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 67.65% (G:22.47% B:0.50%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.35% (G:5.58% B:0.55%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.865 (-0.135)
    Double/Take: +1.123 (+0.123)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.856..+0.874)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+1.109..+1.136)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a----EDBa--dC---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 154 X-O: 0-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.50% (G:20.06% B:0.56%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.50% (G:6.22% B:0.47%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.75% (G:20.88% B:0.53%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.25% (G:6.53% B:0.75%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.824 (-0.168)
    Double/Take: +0.992
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.008)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.814..+0.834)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.978..+1.005)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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