• Pottle or not? 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Mar 6 10:48:46 2022
    XGID=--a--bDBC--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X | +---+
    | O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 8 16:56:33 2022
    XGID=--a--bDBC--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X | +---+
    | O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 61

    This time, 8/2* even hits, but the rollout below says it's a whopper.

    I had to make several adjustments to get an interesting variant.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.230
    Player: 40.49% (G:5.79% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 59.51% (G:26.17% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.240..-0.220) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/2* eq:-0.336 (-0.106)
    Player: 36.57% (G:6.90% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 63.43% (G:27.73% B:0.95%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a---bEBB--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X X | | X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/1* eq:-0.318
    Player: 37.70% (G:7.24% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 62.30% (G:29.32% B:0.99%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.329..-0.307) - [59.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.320 (-0.002)
    Player: 37.63% (G:5.98% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 62.37% (G:28.27% B:0.78%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.330..-0.310) - [40.3%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 11/6 eq:-0.373 (-0.055)
    Player: 35.93% (G:7.10% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 64.07% (G:30.28% B:1.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.383..-0.363) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)