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  • Which blot(s) do you leave?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 1 09:37:00 2021
    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 1 13:42:35 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
    there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes awkward.
    I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Wed Sep 1 11:03:47 2021
    On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
    there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes awkward.
    I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

    The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on where to play the four.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to J R on Thu Sep 2 11:28:50 2021
    J R wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman
    wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
    there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes
    awkward. I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

    The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on
    where to play the four.

    Stick


    I have two ways to play 6:
    -- 18/14/8
    -- 8/2

    The question is where to leave a blot and it looks like I have three
    choices:
    -- 18 point
    -- 2 point
    -- 1 point

    I don't want to break up the 18 point yet. That leaves 1 or 2 point.
    I chose to make anchor on 2 point, but I suppose making anchor on 1
    point is also an option. Leaving a blot on 2 point gives me three
    options to cover if I don't get hit, but I prefer to get hit on 1 point
    rather than 2 point because it forces O a bit deeper into my home board.

    This is my thought process. Perhaps you could provide yours for me to
    learn rather than cryptic messages.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Thu Sep 2 07:07:51 2021
    On Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:28:52 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
    J R wrote:

    On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman
    wrote:
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
    there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes
    awkward. I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

    The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on
    where to play the four.

    Stick
    I have two ways to play 6:
    -- 18/14/8
    -- 8/2

    The question is where to leave a blot and it looks like I have three
    choices:
    -- 18 point
    -- 2 point
    -- 1 point

    I don't want to break up the 18 point yet. That leaves 1 or 2 point.
    I chose to make anchor on 2 point, but I suppose making anchor on 1
    point is also an option. Leaving a blot on 2 point gives me three
    options to cover if I don't get hit, but I prefer to get hit on 1 point rather than 2 point because it forces O a bit deeper into my home board.

    This is my thought process. Perhaps you could provide yours for me to
    learn rather than cryptic messages.

    How was my message cryptic? It was general advice for any position where part of the play is forced/virtually forced. It allows players to better compare the remaining options.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 3 08:15:33 2021
    XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    We can discard 18/8 as being too loose; O is behind in the race with
    the stronger board, and despite being on the bar, has too many hitting
    rolls. So it's between 8/2 5/1 and 8/2 6/2. Both leave the same number
    of shots. We've often been taught that the higher the point in our
    board, the better it is, but that's not always true. First, as
    badgolferman noted, if we're missed, then we have more ways to cover
    a blot on the 2pt than a blot on the 1pt. Second, are we really
    better off with the 2pt made and an opponent's blot on the 1pt than
    with the 1pt made and an opponent's blot on the 2pt? Not really.
    We're not trying to prime our opponent. We're either attacking or
    racing, and for either of those, the 1pt isn't worse than the 2pt
    and might even be slightly better since it forces O slightly more
    forward.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/2 5/1 eq:+0.173
    Player: 59.11% (G:24.04% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 40.89% (G:10.87% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.164..+0.181) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.109 (-0.063)
    Player: 57.48% (G:22.57% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 42.52% (G:11.75% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.101..+0.118) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)