XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 7:58:29 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Are you looking to put the entire match on the line here when you win roughly 58% of the time?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 12:13:23 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 6:13:20 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 7:58:29 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Are you looking to put the entire match on the line here when you win roughly 58% of the time?

Stick

I just looked at the MET and it's incredibly borderline.
So borderline that it probably depends on exactly which MET you use.
I wonder whether this is a "Stand back and admire the marginality" post except that that would be more of a Paul theme, than a tim theme.

Paul

Sorry for relegating Tim to lower-case -- that was just a typo.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 6:13:20 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 7:58:29 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Are you looking to put the entire match on the line here when you win roughly 58% of the time?

Stick

I just looked at the MET and it's incredibly borderline.
So borderline that it probably depends on exactly which MET you use.
I wonder whether this is a "Stand back and admire the marginality" post
except that that would be more of a Paul theme, than a tim theme.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 6:13:20 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

On Monday, February 28, 2022 at 7:58:29 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Are you looking to put the entire match on the line here when you win roughly 58% of the time?

As I said in another thread, they don't call me "Mr. Acurate" for nothing.
I'd like to calculate the exact (to 2dp anyway) MWC under D/T.
We win immediately with doubles that are 3 or higher -- 1/9.
We can roll 21, they can miss, and we can avoid 21 -- 1/18 * 19/36 * 17/18.
We can roll 21, they can roll 21, we can roll 21, and they can roll 21 -- 1/104976 (done without calculator).
We can do a normal roll and they can miss -- 5/6 * 19/36.

Add them together to get 1/9 + 323/11664 + 1/104976 + 95/216.
Now finally I'll bring in the google calculator (I haven't used one until now) for the final phase to get
an MWC of 57.86% (thus validating Stick's remark).

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-B-----------------aa---:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 7 O: 7 X-O: 2-1/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

For money, this is effectively a last-roll position, since even if
X rolls 21, O will not redouble to 8. So for money, X should redouble
since he is a favorite, even though O has a very easy take.

At the score, however, O will redouble to 8 unless X bears off all 3
checkers immediately. (This requires some calculation, since it's not
an auto-redouble.) So if X redoubles, it will be for the match. If
you recognize this and you know your MET then you can work out that X
is not in his doubling window.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 57.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.160
Redouble/Take: -0.006 (-0.166)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.840)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.2%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (+0.160..+0.160)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (-0.006..-0.006)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)