XGID=-CBBBbCAAa---------bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CBBBbCAAa---------bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

This is perhaps an anti-QF problem. The "obvious" play of 22/18 8/7
rolls out waaay ahead of the alternatives. OTB, however, I somehow
managed to outsmart myself by reasoning that there was no point in
making the bar point when I would just have to clear it later. There
is some logic to this reasoning, but X's top priority by far is to
bring his straggler around safely.

Note that in the variant below, where X is disincentivized from
advancing his straggler because it would walk into a direct shot,
bearing in both checkers does not roll out ahead of the more mundane
8/7 6/2.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/7 eq:+0.365
Player: 70.98% (G:6.53% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 29.02% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.361..+0.369) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/2 eq:+0.068 (-0.298)
Player: 58.92% (G:6.53% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 41.08% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.062..+0.073) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/6 eq:+0.032 (-0.333)
Player: 58.18% (G:5.01% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 41.82% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.028..+0.037) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CBBBbCAA-----a----bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 89 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/2 eq:+0.036
Player: 57.61% (G:5.73% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 42.39% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.031..+0.041) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/6 eq:+0.025 (-0.010)
Player: 56.81% (G:6.91% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 43.19% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.020..+0.030) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/7 eq:+0.022 (-0.014)
Player: 58.43% (G:2.98% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 41.57% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.017..+0.027) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-B-a-----accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-B-a-----accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

Typically, the right idea in this type of position is to run the last
checker as far as it will go, since that will make safetying next turn
easier (assuming the checker is not hit, of course). But here, XG
strongly favors 23/17 5/3. Part of the reason is that 23/15 gives O
16 shots and 23/17 5/3 gives O 15 shots; in the variant, it's the same
number of shots either way and the decision is much closer. It's also
probably because playing 5/3 allows X to cover his 1pt blot with a 2.
Still, I'm surprised at how big an equity difference XG thinks there is
between 23/17 5/3 and 23/15.

1. Rollout¹ 23/17 5/3 eq:+0.050
Player: 58.13% (G:13.65% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 41.87% (G:10.21% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.043..+0.058) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/15 eq:-0.052 (-0.102)
Player: 55.55% (G:12.61% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 44.45% (G:12.33% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.060..-0.044) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-Ba------accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 23/17 5/3 eq:-0.063
Player: 54.05% (G:14.79% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 45.95% (G:12.23% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.072..-0.055) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/15 eq:-0.089 (-0.026)
Player: 54.01% (G:12.00% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 45.99% (G:12.49% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.098..-0.080) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)