• Forced to leave shots

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Feb 20 12:13:45 2022
    XGID=-acC-aD-C--AB----bbbbbA--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X O | +---+
    | X X | | X X O | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 22 09:10:50 2022
    XGID=-acC-aD-C--AB----bbbbbA--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X O | +---+
    | X X | | X X O | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 139 O: 173 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    I tried minimizing shots with 12/8, but 12/8 creates another blot.
    Also if O rolls one of her 8 misses, then 11/7 works better for X.
    XG thinks my play is...a sesquiblunder with ketchup?

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 11/7 eq:-0.421
    Player: 30.14% (G:9.52% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 69.86% (G:22.36% B:1.13%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.431..-0.411) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 12/8 eq:-0.555 (-0.134)
    Player: 26.37% (G:8.28% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 73.63% (G:24.55% B:1.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.567..-0.544) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)