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  • Will Tim take this one?

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 18 12:50:41 2022
    Tried to paste from XG
    But the formatting came out garbled.
    So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
    Just to check.

    XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10

    Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 7 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X | | O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Feb 18 21:17:46 2022
    On 2/18/2022 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Tried to paste from XG
    But the formatting came out garbled.
    So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
    Just to check.

    XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10

    Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 7 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X | | O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Yes, I'd take this one. The race is bad but not hopeless for O, and
    O has some shot vig too: Half of X's rolls blot immediately. Neither
    the race vig nor the shot vig by itself is enough to justify a take,
    but I think the two combined should justify it.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Feb 22 02:17:29 2022
    On Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 2:17:49 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 2/18/2022 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Tried to paste from XG
    But the formatting came out garbled.
    So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
    Just to check.

    XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10

    Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 7 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X | | O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Yes, I'd take this one. The race is bad but not hopeless for O, and
    O has some shot vig too: Half of X's rolls blot immediately. Neither
    the race vig nor the shot vig by itself is enough to justify a take,
    but I think the two combined should justify it.

    It rolled out to about a 0.993 take.
    Although your response doesn't convey the marginality, I'll
    be generous and score this one in your favour.

    The rollout is on my other computer, but I did keep it, and will post it if you (or anyone else) is interested.
    I actually passed this, and my pass was fairly quick and confident, too.
    So I was surprised that XG marked my pass as an error.
    But when I appealed by rolling out, my decision's marginality was respected
    and I got the don't-shout verdict in the rollout.

    (Don't-shout = "too close to call" [that might be an obscure reference]).

    I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
    a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't). You somehow have to weight my straggler's journey
    across the board, and I don't know how to do this. Maybe I should interview people who've made solo journeys
    hiking mountains or crossing the channel, and ask them how efficient their journeys were.

    The hitting-a-shot probability must be much less than 25% so the fact that this is takable means the racing chances must
    be somewhat significant. I wonder if we can Axelise the answer to this type of problem.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Feb 22 09:03:11 2022
    On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
    a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).

    How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
    to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
    win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Feb 22 06:50:03 2022
    On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
    a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
    How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
    to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
    win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.

    Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
    What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
    20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Feb 22 09:51:56 2022
    On Tuesday, 22 February 2022 at 14:50:05 UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
    a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
    How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
    to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
    win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.
    Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
    What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
    20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?

    Paul

    Can you two get a room?

    FFS.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Nasti Chestikov on Wed Feb 23 08:11:37 2022
    On 2/22/2022 12:51 PM, Nasti Chestikov wrote:
    Can you two get a room?

    No. Please book one for us! You still haven't paid me for that
    vacation that you promised to the winner of your contest.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Feb 23 08:17:06 2022
    On 2/22/2022 9:50 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
    a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
    How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
    to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
    win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.

    Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
    What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
    20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?

    If we define "racing vig" as the percentage of the time that
    the taker wins without ever hitting a shot, and "shot vig" as
    the rest, I'd guess something like 10% racing vig and 15% shot vig.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)