XGID=--aBBBC-----bB-a-c-gB-Ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X O |
| X O | | O X X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBBBC-----bB-a-c-gB-Ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X O |
| X O | | O X X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

It didn't occur to me that X might be too good here. X is 25 pips
behind, O is not on the bar, and X has only a four-point board.
There are plenty of ways for X to regain his market in the next turn.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.82% (G:34.72% B:1.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.18% (G:5.94% B:0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.20% (G:35.41% B:1.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.80% (G:5.82% B:0.24%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.010
Double/Take: +1.386 (+0.377)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.010)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.999..+1.020)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.369..+1.404)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/6/2023 7:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O              X |
 | X           O    |   | O                |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O          |
 | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O        O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 132  O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Move X's runner and one of the checkers from the six point to the
midpoint and the rule of fours would apply. Assuming the pipcount stays
the same, it would be D/P.

But X still has to spring the runner and O has a "stinger" which
complicates the bear in. That seems to be enough to push it to a take.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Same analysis of the last position!
D/P, but wouldn't be surprised if it is a take

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)