Robertie has said that correct technique against an acepoint game is
to hit as many blots as you can. I also think XG follows this strategy
(as do I when I get the chance).
It would seem to follow that, in this position, my (relatively) good
rolls are the entering aces. If I'm happy dancing, then why hit me
in the first place?
So I am puzzled by the fact that entering made my positional evaluation actually decrease -- from -1.608 to -1.626. I would expect a mild
increase.
How do you explain this conundrum?
(The answer is not that the surgeon was the patient's mother).

Paul

XGID=--B-B-D----abA---b-bbbbbBD:1:1:1:51:8:0:3:0X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
:10

Score is X:8 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| O | X | O O O O O X |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 197 O: 96 X-O: 8-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

1. 3-ply Bar/24 eq:-1.626
Player: 14.90% (G:0.07% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 85.10% (G:69.93% B:27.80%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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On 2/13/2022 6:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Robertie has said that correct technique against an acepoint game is
to hit as many blots as you can. I also think XG follows this strategy
(as do I when I get the chance).
It would seem to follow that, in this position, my (relatively) good
rolls are the entering aces. If I'm happy dancing, then why hit me
in the first place?

Your opponent may be better off when you have 6 checkers back instead
of 5, regardless of whether your checkers are on the bar.

So I am puzzled by the fact that entering made my positional evaluation actually decrease -- from -1.608 to -1.626. I would expect a mild
increase.
How do you explain this conundrum?

The equity difference doesn't look large. But your main winning chances
lie in an ace-point game. For that to work out as well as possible,
your timing needs to be right. Here, you certainly don't want to roll
snake eyes because that would ruin your timing. Entering one checker
shouldn't matter much, but apparently XG thinks it hurts your timing
slightly.

---
Tim Chow

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On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:49:23 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 2/13/2022 6:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Robertie has said that correct technique against an acepoint game is
to hit as many blots as you can. I also think XG follows this strategy
(as do I when I get the chance).
It would seem to follow that, in this position, my (relatively) good
rolls are the entering aces. If I'm happy dancing, then why hit me
in the first place?

Your opponent may be better off when you have 6 checkers back instead
of 5, regardless of whether your checkers are on the bar.

So I am puzzled by the fact that entering made my positional evaluation actually decrease -- from -1.608 to -1.626. I would expect a mild
increase.
How do you explain this conundrum?

The equity difference doesn't look large. But your main winning chances
lie in an ace-point game. For that to work out as well as possible,
your timing needs to be right. Here, you certainly don't want to roll
snake eyes because that would ruin your timing. Entering one checker shouldn't matter much, but apparently XG thinks it hurts your timing slightly.

Thanks.
I don't rate the position as negatively as XG.
I'd like to do a prop based on receiving 1.6 x the cube value and playing X's position.
(I'd be happy if anyone wants to take me up on this, but I won't be putting up real money.
If it becomes clear, by actual play, that my suggested prop isn't good for the underdog, I'll
admit I was wrong.)

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 12:55:05 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:49:23 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 2/13/2022 6:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Robertie has said that correct technique against an acepoint game is
to hit as many blots as you can. I also think XG follows this strategy (as do I when I get the chance).
It would seem to follow that, in this position, my (relatively) good rolls are the entering aces. If I'm happy dancing, then why hit me
in the first place?

Your opponent may be better off when you have 6 checkers back instead
of 5, regardless of whether your checkers are on the bar.

So I am puzzled by the fact that entering made my positional evaluation actually decrease -- from -1.608 to -1.626. I would expect a mild increase.
How do you explain this conundrum?

The equity difference doesn't look large. But your main winning chances
lie in an ace-point game. For that to work out as well as possible,
your timing needs to be right. Here, you certainly don't want to roll
snake eyes because that would ruin your timing. Entering one checker shouldn't matter much, but apparently XG thinks it hurts your timing slightly.

Thanks.
I don't rate the position as negatively as XG.
I'd like to do a prop based on receiving 1.6 x the cube value and playing X's position.
(I'd be happy if anyone wants to take me up on this, but I won't be putting up real money.
If it becomes clear, by actual play, that my suggested prop isn't good for the underdog, I'll
admit I was wrong.)

I think O's position is much harder to play, so I might have suggested a good practical prop even
if XG's eval is correct.

Paul

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On 2/15/2022 7:59 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I think O's position is much harder to play, so I might have suggested a good practical prop even
if XG's eval is correct.

O's position is certainly harder to play in the short term,
because X doesn't have any decisions. But in the games that
X wins, I think that X will have some challenging decisions,
e.g., deciding when to redouble, and making containment
checker plays.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 1:51:51 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 2/15/2022 7:59 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I think O's position is much harder to play, so I might have suggested a good practical prop even
if XG's eval is correct.

O's position is certainly harder to play in the short term,
because X doesn't have any decisions. But in the games that
X wins, I think that X will have some challenging decisions,
e.g., deciding when to redouble, and making containment
checker plays.

Hmmm, I might play it as a prop against XG, but I struggle to set up positions. Note that in this prop, X wins 0.6 * cube, just by saving the gammon.

Paul

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