XGID=aBBB-DB------A--c-bccB-ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
I was astounded by how differently the given position and its variant
below rolled out.
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.01% (G:11.99% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.99% (G:4.06% B:0.12%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.05% (G:12.13% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.95% (G:4.63% B:0.14%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.723 (-0.110)
Redouble/Take: +0.834
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.166)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.730)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.823..+0.844)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=aBBB-CC------A--c-bccB-ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.57% (G:15.51% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.43% (G:3.86% B:0.13%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.61% (G:15.56% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.39% (G:3.89% B:0.14%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.819 (-0.181)
Redouble/Take: +1.072 (+0.072)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.813..+0.824)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.061..+1.083)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 8:53:51 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:right there. You can add on top of that of course when the opponent enters with [42 41] or when they simply fan again and again you still have extra numbers to close your board that you wouldn't have had the other way.
XGID=aBBB-DB------A--c-bccB-ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
I was astounded by how differently the given position and its variant below rolled out.
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.01% (G:11.99% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.99% (G:4.06% B:0.12%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.05% (G:12.13% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.95% (G:4.63% B:0.14%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.723 (-0.110)
Redouble/Take: +0.834
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.166)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.730)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.823..+0.844)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=aBBB-CC------A--c-bccB-ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.57% (G:15.51% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.43% (G:3.86% B:0.13%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.61% (G:15.56% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.39% (G:3.89% B:0.14%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.819 (-0.181)
Redouble/Take: +1.072 (+0.072)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.813..+0.824)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.061..+1.083)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---Why? If you only take the numbers that make the full board immediately from the original to the variant you go from one [11] to three [21 11]. So you have two more rolls or ~2.78% on the first turn to have the nuts. That explains the bulk of the win %
Tim Chow
Why? If you only take the numbers that make the full board immediately from the original to the variant you go from one [11] to three [21 11]. So you have two more rolls or ~2.78% on the first turn to have the nuts. That explains the bulk of the win% right there.
On 2/16/2022 1:42 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
Why? If you only take the numbers that make the full board
immediately from the original to the variant you go from one [11] to
three [21 11]. So you have two more rolls or ~2.78% on the first turn
to have the nuts. That explains the bulk of the win % right there.
I don't buy this explanation. In the original position, if X rolls 21,
he doesn't lose immediately.
On 2/16/2022 8:21 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
On 2/16/2022 1:42 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
Why? If you only take the numbers that make the full board
immediately from the original to the variant you go from one [11] to
three [21 11]. So you have two more rolls or ~2.78% on the first turn
to have the nuts. That explains the bulk of the win % right there.
I don't buy this explanation. In the original position, if X rolls 21,Maybe a better way to make my point is the variant position below.
he doesn't lose immediately.
I don't believe that the swing on 21 is the primary explanation.
XGID=aBBB-BD------A--c-bccB-ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 74.14% (G:14.87% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.86% (G:3.72% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.594, Double=+1.199
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.801 (-0.199)
Redouble/Take: +1.028 (+0.028)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
But I explained this, didn't I??
My analysis is totally consistent with this result.
The point (that I've made before even while describing exactly this position) is that the new variant allows you to restore flexibility with your next ace.
I also don't agree that you are rebutting Stick in any sensible way.
If you change a position so that 21 switches from being a loser to a winner. Then the difference is 2/18 = 1/9 = 11%.
That situation doesn't pertain here (as you say) and that is why Stick attributed
the 21 swing to 2.78% rather than 11%.
In your new variant, we don't make the point by 21 but we do have an extra pointmaker
-- 22 and 11 instead of just 11.
Further, as Stick and I said, the new variant allows us to roll an ace to prepare for 21 later.
But I explained this, didn't I??
My analysis is totally consistent with this result.
The point (that I've made before even while describing exactly this position) is that the new variant allows you to restore flexibility with your next ace.
XGID=-BbBBBE--A--b----e-bb--bA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 89 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
XGID=-BbBBBE--A--b----e-bb--bA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 89 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
XGID=-BbBBBE--A--b----e-bb--bA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 89 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Disclaimer -- I am anti-Walting. I did read Renan's post which seemed very thoughtful. Without googling him, I'd guess he's a strong expert or even a world-class player.
The take is very clear, too. The opponent's 8 point stack is awkward but won't take long to improve. Crucially, our pip lead is far too small for a gammon. While not escaped, we are vulnerable to 44 and 55 as anti-jokers.
Even if we lose our market by escaping, the opponent's deuce point backgame offers them residual equity. The opponent's made deuce point in their inner board is a weakness.
They would rather move this two point to their four point (but this isn't legal). However, that's not enough of a weakness for a pass.
Disclaimer -- I am anti-Walting. I did read Renan's post which seemed very thoughtful. Without googling him, I'd guess he's a strong expert or even a world-class player.Wow thanks so much. My best recent results were a couple of wins at the Montreal BG Club - I will show them this comment just for bragging
The take is very clear, too. The opponent's 8 point stack is awkward but won't take long to improve. Crucially, our pip lead is far too small for a gammon. While not escaped, we are vulnerable to 44 and 55 as anti-jokers.
Even if we lose our market by escaping, the opponent's deuce point backgame offers them residual equity. The opponent's made deuce point in their inner board is a weakness.
They would rather move this two point to their four point (but this isn't legal). However, that's not enough of a weakness for a pass.
Now *that* is thoughtful; I accept it's a take now
XGID=-BbBBBE--A--b----e-bb--bA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 89 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
This position requires carefully judging how good O's chances are
of containing X's straggler. I didn't think that O's position was
good enough to allow a take, because the 2pt is rather deep and the
spares are all stacked on the 8pt. But XG says it's an easy take.
But see also the variant, which illustrates that even moving X's
straggler forward two pips makes a big difference.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.52% (G:20.58% B:0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.48% (G:3.14% B:0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.47% (G:20.86% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.53% (G:3.29% B:0.08%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.678 (-0.055)
Double/Take: +0.733
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.267)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.668..+0.688)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.719..+0.748)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-BbBBBE--A--b----e-bb-Ab--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:21.39% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.62% (G:21.25% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.38% (G:2.64% B:0.08%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.771 (-0.198)
Double/Take: +0.968
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.032)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.760..+0.781)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.955..+0.982)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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