• Jump out or hit? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 11 08:52:33 2022
    XGID=-CB-BaB----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O O | | O X O X O |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 14 08:53:46 2022
    XGID=-CB-BaB----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O O | | O X O X O |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 63

    When it comes to containment, good outfield coverage can be as good as,
    if not better than, hitting. Of course it depends on various factors,
    such as how likely the opponent is to dance, how likely X is to cover
    if O doesn't hit, and in this position, whether X needs to leap the
    prime when he has the chance. For comparison, see the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.404
    Player: 28.35% (G:3.79% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 71.65% (G:10.65% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.411..-0.397) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:-0.500 (-0.095)
    Player: 28.61% (G:4.56% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 71.39% (G:20.52% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.508..-0.492) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 15/12 11/5* eq:-0.513 (-0.109)
    Player: 27.70% (G:4.45% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 72.30% (G:20.03% B:0.85%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.521..-0.505) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BB-BaC----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O O | | O X O X O |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:-0.249
    Player: 36.26% (G:8.75% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 63.74% (G:19.06% B:1.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.259..-0.238) - [89.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.257 (-0.008)
    Player: 33.60% (G:7.15% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 66.40% (G:10.93% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.264..-0.249) - [10.4%]

    3. Rollout¹ 15/12 11/5* eq:-0.275 (-0.026)
    Player: 35.15% (G:8.21% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 64.85% (G:18.29% B:0.81%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.284..-0.266) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)