• Point on the 4pt and then?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 9 09:36:15 2022
    XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-bBbb-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O O |
    | X O | | O X O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 11 08:51:14 2022
    XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-bBbb-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O O |
    | X O | | O X O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    I switched points with 3/1*(2), committing to a blitz. But this is a
    bit risky given O's strong board. The alternative of 13/11(2) maintains
    both priming and blitzing chances. If O's board were weaker than the
    choice would be closer (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4*(2) eq:+0.771
    Player: 67.77% (G:24.83% B:1.22%)
    Opponent: 32.23% (G:8.48% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.759..+0.783) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4*(2) eq:+0.697 (-0.074)
    Player: 66.12% (G:23.96% B:1.16%)
    Opponent: 33.88% (G:9.50% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.685..+0.710) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.654 (-0.118)
    Player: 63.75% (G:28.10% B:1.10%)
    Opponent: 36.25% (G:10.43% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.642..+0.665) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-cBbba--:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O O |
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4*(2) eq:+0.853
    Player: 69.33% (G:25.71% B:1.56%)
    Opponent: 30.67% (G:7.37% B:0.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.843..+0.863) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.829 (-0.024)
    Player: 66.07% (G:34.30% B:1.82%)
    Opponent: 33.93% (G:9.06% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.820..+0.838) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)