• Bearoff: forced to leave a shot 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Feb 6 09:38:17 2022
    XGID=-CDaB-D------------bbcbbc-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    | | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 43 O: 69 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 8 08:33:17 2022
    XGID=-CDaB-D------------bbcbbc-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    | | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 43 O: 69 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    Gammons are negligible here. Either 6/3* or 4/1 leaves the same
    number of immediate return shots, but 6/3* is more likely to give
    O further chances of hitting a shot. For example, if O dances,
    X may not be able to clean up the blot. Note that if O rolls
    something like 64 62 44, then we would prefer that she be forced
    to run rather than stick around.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 4/1 eq:+0.296
    Player: 67.73% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 32.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.295..+0.298) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3* 6/Off eq:+0.228 (-0.068)
    Player: 65.82% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 34.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.226..+0.229) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)