From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Feb 6 09:37:25 2022
XGID=--BcaCB-C-C--A--ab-b-bbAb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X O |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63
One thing X has to judge here is, how hard will it be to escape the
straggler if he doesn't run now? If O does not have a serious priming
or attacking threat, then X can calmly make the bar point now and
Pottle later. For comparison, see the variant below. Note that
making the bar point has the advantage of winning more gammons (in
both positions).
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:+0.443
Player: 70.92% (G:17.51% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 29.08% (G:5.21% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.436..+0.449) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.327 (-0.116)
Player: 69.08% (G:12.87% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 30.92% (G:7.68% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.319..+0.334) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.247 (-0.196)
Player: 64.51% (G:21.74% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 35.49% (G:12.41% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.237..+0.256) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 23/20 10/4* eq:+0.222 (-0.221)
Player: 64.27% (G:21.60% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 35.73% (G:14.41% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.213..+0.231) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--BcaCB-C-C--A--abbb-b-Ab-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X O |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.416
Player: 71.29% (G:14.61% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 28.71% (G:5.49% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.409..+0.423) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:+0.387 (-0.030)
Player: 68.03% (G:19.59% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 31.97% (G:5.58% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.379..+0.394) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)