• Bar point or midpoint?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 3 09:20:39 2022
    XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AdabbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 5 12:23:14 2022
    XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AdabbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    This is a "safe versus bold" judgment call; see the variant. 18/13
    releases a lot of the pressure on O's position, but of course leaves
    more blots and shots.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/7 eq:+0.020
    Player: 51.36% (G:15.47% B:0.80%)
    Opponent: 48.64% (G:16.87% B:0.87%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.005..+0.036) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.072 (-0.092)
    Player: 48.92% (G:12.69% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 51.08% (G:15.60% B:0.72%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.087..-0.057) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AcbbbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.447
    Player: 40.17% (G:8.32% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 59.83% (G:18.24% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.462..-0.432) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/7 eq:-0.502 (-0.055)
    Player: 39.74% (G:10.10% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 60.26% (G:24.12% B:1.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.518..-0.487) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)