XGID=aAABBBBaA----A-b-bcb-Cbb--:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O O | +---+
| O O O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | X | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aAABBBBaA----A-b-bcb-Cbb--:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O O | +---+
| O O O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | X | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

I will hit. There are three points open for me to reenter.

13/7*, 8/5

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aAABBBBaA----A-b-bcb-Cbb--:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O O | +---+
| O O O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | X | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

It's often better to cover a home-board blot than to hit another
checker. Here, 8/2 gives O 25 dancing rolls instead of 16. But
X also has to consider his back checkers, which are somewhat hemmed
in by O's broken prime. For X, getting hit back is less of a disaster
than being forced to crunch his board. Hitting with 13/7* is not
just an attacking play; it's a priming play, sending O's outfield
checker behind X's prime in case the game evolves into a priming
battle.

In the variant, I have shuffled X's back checkers around a bit to
get a position where XG favors 8/2 over 13/7*.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/4 eq:+0.225
Player: 59.95% (G:31.21% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 40.05% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.214..+0.236) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 8/5 eq:+0.203 (-0.022)
Player: 59.16% (G:31.50% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:13.83% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.192..+0.215) - [0.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/2 eq:+0.141 (-0.085)
Player: 56.57% (G:29.95% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 43.43% (G:10.57% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.131..+0.151) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aAABBBBaA----A-b-bcbB-bbA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O O X | +---+
| O O O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/2 eq:+0.571
Player: 68.60% (G:41.09% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 31.40% (G:8.98% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.563..+0.580) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7* eq:+0.508 (-0.063)
Player: 68.06% (G:38.50% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 31.94% (G:12.75% B:0.97%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.498..+0.518) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/4 eq:+0.225
Player: 59.95% (G:31.21% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 40.05% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.214..+0.236) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 8/5 eq:+0.203 (-0.022)
Player: 59.16% (G:31.50% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:13.83% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.192..+0.215) - [0.3%]

Please give me a compelling reason why 7/4 is preferred over 8/5.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 2:40:06 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:

Timothy Chow wrote:

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/4 eq:+0.225
Player: 59.95% (G:31.21% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 40.05% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.214..+0.236) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 8/5 eq:+0.203 (-0.022)
Player: 59.16% (G:31.50% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:13.83% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.192..+0.215) - [0.3%]

Please give me a compelling reason why 7/4 is preferred over 8/5.

But it's only 0.022 better so you wouldn't expect a compelling reason to exist. When two plays look to be "about as good as each other", they don't usually differ in equity by less than 0.022.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:40:06 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:

Timothy Chow wrote:

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/4 eq:+0.225
Player: 59.95% (G:31.21% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 40.05% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.214..+0.236) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 8/5 eq:+0.203 (-0.022)
Player: 59.16% (G:31.50% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:13.83% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.192..+0.215) - [0.3%]

Please give me a compelling reason why 7/4 is preferred over 8/5.

It allows your 6s and 5s to play better.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-dbb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-dbb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

If you don't hit O will hit again.

Bar/22/17*

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-dbb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

I have noticed that I have a definite tendency to favor hitting over
covering in these sorts of decisions, compared to XG. Here it seems
that I'm leaving more or less a double shot either way, so why not
gain a tempo by hitting? But locking down X's 4pt is a long-term
asset, and O's attack is not all that strong when we have an equally
strong board. For comparison, see the variant, where O has three
builders ready to attack our blot if we don't hit.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.330
Player: 41.60% (G:16.17% B:1.18%)
Opponent: 58.40% (G:20.47% B:1.79%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.345..-0.314) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.441 (-0.112)
Player: 41.19% (G:13.23% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 58.81% (G:23.87% B:2.34%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.458..-0.425) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-ccb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.431
Player: 39.65% (G:14.79% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 60.35% (G:21.81% B:1.97%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.443..-0.420) - [98.2%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.450 (-0.019)
Player: 41.07% (G:13.35% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 58.93% (G:24.74% B:2.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.464..-0.437) - [1.8%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Cover

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Attack a single checker? X has only 9 checkers in the zone and
getting hit back will likely bring an abrupt end to the blitz.
13/3 keeps all options open. In the variant, there are 10 checkers
in the zone and XG thinks that 13/3 and 8/2* 6/2 are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:-0.034
Player: 48.42% (G:16.40% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 51.58% (G:14.75% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.045..-0.022) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:-0.126 (-0.092)
Player: 46.07% (G:15.98% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 53.93% (G:15.68% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.140..-0.111) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aAB-D-C---dC--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:+0.027
Player: 49.87% (G:17.46% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 50.13% (G:14.00% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.021..+0.033) - [75.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.024 (-0.003)
Player: 49.51% (G:18.32% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 50.49% (G:12.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.017..+0.031) - [24.4%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

10 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 15:25:10 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
Attack a single checker? X has only 9 checkers in the zone and
getting hit back will likely bring an abrupt end to the blitz.
13/3 keeps all options open. In the variant, there are 10 checkers
in the zone and XG thinks that 13/3 and 8/2* 6/2 are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:-0.034
Player: 48.42% (G:16.40% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 51.58% (G:14.75% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.045..-0.022) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:-0.126 (-0.092)
Player: 46.07% (G:15.98% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 53.93% (G:15.68% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.140..-0.111) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aAB-D-C---dC--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:+0.027
Player: 49.87% (G:17.46% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 50.13% (G:14.00% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.021..+0.033) - [75.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.024 (-0.003)
Player: 49.51% (G:18.32% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 50.49% (G:12.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.017..+0.031) - [24.4%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Similarly, the opponent's having only one blot hinders offensive play. If he had another blot anywhere on the board, attacking would usually be the right game.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/3/2022 9:42 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O     X  O    |   | O  X  O          |
 | X  O        O    |   | O  X  O          |
 | X  O        O    |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X             |
 | O                |   | X  X     X       |
 | O     X          |   | X  X  O  X       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 163  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

X is behind in the race, has the better board, and an advanced anchor.
That points toward a bold play, so I'll hit. bar/24 10/4.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 1:56:49 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:

On 9/3/2022 9:42 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

X is behind in the race, has the better board, and an advanced anchor.
That points toward a bold play, so I'll hit. bar/24 10/4.

He also doesn't have enough men in the zone to blitz and not many covers even if missed. Hard to weigh all the factors but another factor pointing the other direction is that the 10pt is quite the useful point. Normally when we're looking at hit/no hit
situations like this the non hitting play isn't as fruitful.

Stick

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XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

This is tough one, I think. As ah_clem implied, Magriel's criteria
point to a bold play, which suggests hitting. But XG prefers to
button up with 16/10. X may be able to contain O's straggler without
risking getting two more checkers sent back, and even if O's straggler
escapes, X should get other opportunities to hit later.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 16/10 eq:-0.078
Player: 46.62% (G:14.03% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 53.38% (G:10.22% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.085..-0.072) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 10/4* eq:-0.152 (-0.074)
Player: 46.02% (G:13.43% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 53.98% (G:14.59% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.160..-0.144) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 8:30:27 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

I would hit. Being 20 points behind and with O's forward position quite strong, to play passively covering the blot on 9 doesn't work. The hit has some tempo value, and being hit back may work out to our advantage in terms of hitting in O's inner board
and/or anchoring.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

When behind in the race, one does not wish to race, but should one
attack or prime? It depends on the situation. Priming is often
more effective, but hitting can be indicated if it gains an important
tempo. Here I hit for that reason (as did Bob, I see), but XG hates
it. X is, after all, outboarded. In the variant below, XG 3-ply hits, although a rollout narrowly overturns that verdict.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 eq:-0.132
Player: 43.14% (G:11.61% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 56.86% (G:28.99% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.144..-0.121) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/4* eq:-0.229 (-0.097)
Player: 41.28% (G:12.57% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 58.72% (G:32.38% B:3.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.241..-0.218) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--b-acbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 eq:-0.196
Player: 41.56% (G:11.15% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 58.44% (G:30.29% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.206..-0.185) - [99.1%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/4* eq:-0.218 (-0.022)
Player: 41.89% (G:13.33% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 58.11% (G:32.36% B:3.68%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.232..-0.203) - [0.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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