• Make the 18pt or the 11pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 3 08:30:49 2021
    XGID=-b-a-aE-C--AdC----AcbbA-A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 eae46d985bb54e9a8778404e868d5469dace30d1490c0a7cee7

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O X X |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    Sneak preview of next problem:
    Buy now?
    3fe681c0ce735c72fbd7af12768da950700f1fa4e44f23209dc4239d
    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 6 08:24:02 2021
    XGID=-b-a-aE-C--AdC----AcbbA-A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 eae46d985bb54e9a8778404e868d5469dace30d1490c0a7cee7

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O X X |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 43

    I liked the look of making the 11pt; the alternative of lifting
    the 11pt blot to the 8pt looked inflexible to me. But X has the
    weaker board and fewer checkers back and should be looking to make
    an anchor. Two spares on the 8pt isn't so bad anyway since it
    makes several of X's doublets play better.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/18 11/8 eq:+0.140
    Player: 49.31% (G:12.12% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 50.69% (G:16.67% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.128..+0.151) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq:+0.032 (-0.107)
    Player: 45.63% (G:11.85% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 54.37% (G:19.04% B:0.78%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.018..+0.047) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)