XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I think escaping
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33
Usually in a blitz, making home-board points is a high priority,
and escaping the back checkers is a low priority. So after 8/5,
I played 9/3 6/3. However, XG says that's a whopper, and that
it is mandatory to play 8/5 23/20(2) 13/10. This surprised me,
because O's broken prime didn't look particularly formidable to
me, but it is true that X does not have a lot of spare pips to
play after 8/5 9/3 6/3. For comparison, see the variant below.
1. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.112
Player: 79.84% (G:63.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 20.16% (G:4.56% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.106..+1.118) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 8/5(2) eq:+1.013 (-0.099)
Player: 77.94% (G:58.47% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 22.06% (G:4.65% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.007..+1.019) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+1.008 (-0.104)
Player: 77.06% (G:62.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 22.94% (G:6.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.001..+1.014) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.999 (-0.113)
Player: 76.78% (G:60.72% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.22% (G:5.31% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.991..+1.007) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-cb-b-B-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33
1. Rollout¹ 24/21(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+0.979
Player: 76.28% (G:60.89% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 23.72% (G:6.18% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.975..+0.983) - [95.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.975 (-0.004)
Player: 76.05% (G:60.88% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 23.95% (G:6.52% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.971..+0.978) - [5.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.922 (-0.057)
Player: 74.76% (G:60.62% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:8.44% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.919..+0.926) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+0.910 (-0.070)
Player: 74.35% (G:59.43% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.65% (G:7.57% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.906..+0.913) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I thinkescaping the back checker is important
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