From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Feb 1 09:29:25 2022
XGID=--CBbBC-BA---c-b-c-bcB----:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X O X X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65
Most of the standard "checklist" of items for an anchor-breaking play
are present here. X is far ahead in the pip count with the stronger
board, and the alternative is an ugly dumping play that weakens his
position. The only thing that might give you pause---and that gave
me pause OTB---is that breaking anchor gives O tons of blots and shots
to aim at. One has to judge whether the attacking potential is too
great. In the position at hand, XG thinks it's an easy decision, but
in the variant below, XG finds it to be a much closer call.
1. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:-0.259
Player: 42.30% (G:16.40% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 57.70% (G:11.36% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.272..-0.246) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 9/3 eq:-0.331 (-0.072)
Player: 40.93% (G:12.98% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 59.07% (G:13.13% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.344..-0.317) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 9/3 6/1 eq:-0.427 (-0.168)
Player: 39.65% (G:11.68% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 60.35% (G:13.55% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.440..-0.413) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--CBbBC-BA---c-b-b-ccB----:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X O X X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 9/3 eq:-0.357
Player: 40.68% (G:13.44% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 59.32% (G:14.17% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.368..-0.345) - [54.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:-0.358 (-0.001)
Player: 40.25% (G:13.51% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 59.75% (G:12.81% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.370..-0.345) - [45.1%]
3. Rollout¹ 9/3 6/1 eq:-0.379 (-0.023)
Player: 40.81% (G:11.81% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 59.19% (G:13.34% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.392..-0.366) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)