-
Play safe?
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Jan 28 10:12:04 2022
XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Jan 30 12:08:42 2022
XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
Usually it's not a good idea to break the bar point anchor and leave a
direct shot when the opponent's board is this strong. Indeed, in the
variant below, where O has a five-point board, XG favors the ugly dump.
But in the position I posted, XG breaks anchor.
1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.200
Player: 37.74% (G:3.84% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 62.26% (G:14.30% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.207..-0.194) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.287 (-0.087)
Player: 35.75% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:16.83% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.293..-0.281) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.329 (-0.129)
Player: 33.91% (G:3.79% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 66.09% (G:16.66% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.336..-0.323) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbbbbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.348
Player: 33.71% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 66.29% (G:17.26% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.354..-0.342) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.394 (-0.046)
Player: 31.41% (G:2.25% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.59% (G:17.00% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.400..-0.387) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Mon Jan 31 07:53:45 2022
On Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 12:08:44 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
Usually it's not a good idea to break the bar point anchor and leave a direct shot when the opponent's board is this strong. Indeed, in the
variant below, where O has a five-point board, XG favors the ugly dump.
But in the position I posted, XG breaks anchor.
1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.200
Player: 37.74% (G:3.84% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 62.26% (G:14.30% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.207..-0.194) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.287 (-0.087)
Player: 35.75% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:16.83% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.293..-0.281) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.329 (-0.129)
Player: 33.91% (G:3.79% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 66.09% (G:16.66% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.336..-0.323) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbbbbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.348
Player: 33.71% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 66.29% (G:17.26% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.354..-0.342) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.394 (-0.046)
Player: 31.41% (G:2.25% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.59% (G:17.00% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.400..-0.387) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The variant isn't about just a stronger board. You've closed the race gap by 5 pips and made it so the opponent is forced to weaken his position no matter what he rolls so we hold out for that.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Aug 15 08:01:15 2023
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Tue Aug 15 12:14:20 2023
On 8/15/2023 8:01 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
I've been dinged a lot for failing to hit is positions like this. O's
board is weak and there's a homeboard blot to shoot at.
8/4*
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Aug 17 09:58:24 2023
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
XG thinks that O's board is weak enough to justify taking some risk
to begin clearing our 8pt. But interestingly, while it is happy
with 8/5 6/5 or even 8/7 8/5, it hates 8/4*. I believe that the
reason is that even if O doesn't hit back immediately after 8/4*,
covering that blot is not easy, and even if we cover it, it is just
another point we have to clear. Playing against a backgame is quite
different from playing against a single anchor.
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.205
Player: 54.93% (G:27.44% B:4.51%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.190..+0.221) - [69.1%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:+0.200 (-0.005)
Player: 54.94% (G:26.62% B:4.32%)
Opponent: 45.06% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.186..+0.214) - [30.9%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:+0.085 (-0.121)
Player: 51.73% (G:24.95% B:3.89%)
Opponent: 48.27% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.069..+0.101) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/4* eq:-0.047 (-0.252)
Player: 48.49% (G:25.12% B:4.81%)
Opponent: 51.51% (G:7.91% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.065..-0.029) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------cbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.505
Player: 34.78% (G:17.58% B:3.27%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:8.95% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.518..-0.492) - [97.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.522 (-0.018)
Player: 35.41% (G:16.98% B:2.93%)
Opponent: 64.59% (G:10.14% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.535..-0.509) - [3.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.539 (-0.035)
Player: 34.86% (G:16.61% B:2.37%)
Opponent: 65.14% (G:10.67% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.528) - [0.0%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sun Sep 24 15:42:41 2023
On Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 9:58:30 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
XG thinks that O's board is weak enough to justify taking some risk
to begin clearing our 8pt. But interestingly, while it is happy
with 8/5 6/5 or even 8/7 8/5, it hates 8/4*. I believe that the
reason is that even if O doesn't hit back immediately after 8/4*,
covering that blot is not easy, and even if we cover it, it is just
another point we have to clear. Playing against a backgame is quite different from playing against a single anchor.
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.205
Player: 54.93% (G:27.44% B:4.51%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.190..+0.221) - [69.1%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:+0.200 (-0.005)
Player: 54.94% (G:26.62% B:4.32%)
Opponent: 45.06% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.186..+0.214) - [30.9%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:+0.085 (-0.121)
Player: 51.73% (G:24.95% B:3.89%)
Opponent: 48.27% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.069..+0.101) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/4* eq:-0.047 (-0.252)
Player: 48.49% (G:25.12% B:4.81%)
Opponent: 51.51% (G:7.91% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.065..-0.029) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------cbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.505
Player: 34.78% (G:17.58% B:3.27%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:8.95% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.518..-0.492) - [97.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.522 (-0.018)
Player: 35.41% (G:16.98% B:2.93%)
Opponent: 64.59% (G:10.14% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.535..-0.509) - [3.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.539 (-0.035)
Player: 34.86% (G:16.61% B:2.37%)
Opponent: 65.14% (G:10.67% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.528) - [0.0%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
It hates 8/4* not only because of the difficulty of covering it when missed but that play leaves two blots in the ether. Playing with one blot against a four, even five point board can be manageable but if you have two or more floating around out there
you're going to have a rough time even when the opponent has 5 checkers back.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Oct 12 08:55:42 2023
XGID=--BBBbBAB---cB--Ba-d-bab--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X O X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah...Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sat Oct 14 10:26:38 2023
On 10/12/2023 8:55 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--BBBbBAB---cB--Ba-d-bab--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O | | | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X O X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
X is ahead in the race, which implies safe play. But O's board is a mess
while his is strong, which implies bold. I'll go with clearing the 16
point - 2s are duped and there's good counterplay if missed. And since X
is ahead in the race, clearing the rearmost point is thematic.
16/13 16/12.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Oct 14 11:04:48 2023
XGID=--BBBbBAB---cB--Ba-d-bab--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X O X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
This is a sort of pay-now-or-later problem, with the extra wrinkle
being that X has two points in O's outfield to clear. That means
even if he pays now, he might still be faced with another such
decision later. In other words, his chances of never having to
pay at all are slightly lower than if he had just one point to clear.
In this position, O has a blot in her board, which is poised to
become a fourth point in her board. The rollout below says that
paying later is a whopper. Without that blot, it would be a whole
different kettle of fish (see variant below).
1. Rollout¹ 16/14 16/13 eq:+0.245
Player: 58.43% (G:5.85% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 41.57% (G:9.01% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.236..+0.254) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq:+0.145 (-0.100)
Player: 54.96% (G:6.61% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 45.04% (G:8.79% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.135..+0.154) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--BBBbBAB---cB--Ba-d-c-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X O X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq:+0.257
Player: 58.13% (G:6.90% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 41.87% (G:6.78% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.250..+0.263) - [93.1%]
2. Rollout¹ 16/14 16/13 eq:+0.249 (-0.007)
Player: 58.72% (G:7.90% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 41.28% (G:8.90% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.243..+0.256) - [6.9%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
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Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)