XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

You should just make the DMP play here because...well, it's DMP.

I decided to break anchor, reasoning as follows: I'm ahead in the race,
my opponent has two blots in her board making it hard for her to attack successfully, and the alternative is to kill another checker. Plus, I
don't have to worry about the extra gammons lost because it's DMP.

However, XG favors 8/4 8/3, probably because O's attacking chances are
better than I judged them to be. Interestingly, for money, XG rates
the prospects of breaking anchor (relatively) more highly, because of
the extra gammon *wins* coming from a potential blot-hitting contest.

See also the variant, in which I've moved O's 4pt blot to her 1pt.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.063
Player: 46.86% (G:7.06% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 53.14% (G:6.80% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.067..-0.059) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.096 (-0.034)
Player: 45.18% (G:4.58% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 54.82% (G:7.51% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.100..-0.093) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.100 (-0.037)
Player: 45.02% (G:16.08% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 54.98% (G:11.15% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.103..-0.096) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.118 (-0.056)
Player: 44.08% (G:18.43% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 55.92% (G:11.60% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.122..-0.115) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.143
Player: 44.97% (G:15.00% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 55.03% (G:14.10% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.151..-0.135) - [87.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.151 (-0.008)
Player: 45.96% (G:10.31% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 54.04% (G:13.96% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.160..-0.142) - [8.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.154 (-0.011)
Player: 47.27% (G:6.70% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 52.73% (G:9.92% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.165..-0.143) - [4.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbB-caa-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 110 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.001
Player: 49.94% (G:17.15% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 50.06% (G:10.90% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.005..+0.002) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.012 (-0.011)
Player: 49.38% (G:15.94% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 50.62% (G:9.33% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.016..-0.009) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.029 (-0.027)
Player: 48.57% (G:8.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 51.43% (G:6.89% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.032..-0.025) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, October 20, 2022 at 9:26:15 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-CBaB-CC-B--a---a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 86 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Too much of our race lead stems from wastage. If you were to bring a checker from our ace point back to our six point and otherwise set the opponent back five normal pips then it could be more interesting.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CBaB-CC-B--a---a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 86 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

It sounds like you're talking about Variant 1 below. I don't
think that the main difference between my position and your variant
is the race wastage, although I agree that plays a secondary role.
Rather, in your variant, the biggest difference is that there are now
more builders for attacking (e.g., a potential PoH next roll). If we
set the opponent back five pips without changing X's position, then
XG still prefers to volunteer a blot (see Variant 2).

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-BBaB-DC-B-aa------bbbbbb-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 91 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 7/5(3) 6/4 eq:+0.728
Player: 86.38% (G:4.17% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 13.62% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.726..+0.729) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) eq:+0.710 (-0.018)
Player: 85.49% (G:8.37% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 14.51% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.708..+0.712) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/5(2) eq:+0.669 (-0.059)
Player: 83.44% (G:1.86% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 16.56% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.667..+0.671) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-CBaB-CC-B-aa------bbbbbb-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 91 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) eq:+0.715
Player: 85.76% (G:7.85% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 14.24% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.714..+0.717) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5(2) eq:+0.689 (-0.027)
Player: 84.43% (G:1.94% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 15.57% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.687..+0.690) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5(3) 6/4 eq:+0.652 (-0.064)
Player: 82.58% (G:3.20% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 17.42% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.650..+0.654) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CBaB-CC-B--a---a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 86 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 22

Generally speaking, when you're well ahead in the race like this,
you should just play safe and not leave any shots. However, one
does need to consider future blotting danger as well. 7/3*(2)
forces O's straggler forward and reduces X's future blotting danger
at the cost of 2 immediate hitting rolls from the bar.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) eq:+0.694
Player: 84.68% (G:3.96% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 15.32% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.692..+0.695) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5(2) eq:+0.634 (-0.059)
Player: 81.71% (G:0.89% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 18.29% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.632..+0.636) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)