• A good roll, but how do you play it?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 26 09:49:33 2022
    XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 28 10:16:51 2022
    XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    After 13/3 8/3, I figured that if I was going to leave a direct shot,
    I might as well hit and put O up against a four-point board. One
    problem is that it's hard to cover that blot on the 1pt. See the
    variant for comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.500
    Player: 59.39% (G:23.70% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 40.61% (G:8.14% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.484..+0.515) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.419 (-0.081)
    Player: 58.44% (G:23.19% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 41.56% (G:9.51% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.403..+0.435) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aa-BCC-A---bD--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.595
    Player: 60.73% (G:28.35% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 39.27% (G:8.45% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.586..+0.604) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.535 (-0.060)
    Player: 60.26% (G:28.51% B:0.86%)
    Opponent: 39.74% (G:8.33% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.525..+0.546) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Jan 28 11:31:27 2022
    On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 10:16:55 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55
    After 13/3 8/3, I figured that if I was going to leave a direct shot,
    I might as well hit and put O up against a four-point board. One
    problem is that it's hard to cover that blot on the 1pt. See the
    variant for comparison.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.500
    Player: 59.39% (G:23.70% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 40.61% (G:8.14% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.484..+0.515) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.419 (-0.081)
    Player: 58.44% (G:23.19% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 41.56% (G:9.51% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.403..+0.435) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aa-BCC-A---bD--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55
    1. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.595
    Player: 60.73% (G:28.35% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 39.27% (G:8.45% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.586..+0.604) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.535 (-0.060)
    Player: 60.26% (G:28.51% B:0.86%)
    Opponent: 39.74% (G:8.33% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.525..+0.546) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    One way you give your opponent 20 good rolls the other way you give them 13. (and even on a fan after the hitting play it's nowhere near close to a pass and it will repeat, as you noted)

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)