I totally agree with all moves to preserve rare species. However, I do think that
beavers might be more frequent than is commonly supposed.
I thought I played an excellent game against XG but, in fact, my PR was around 9.0
My mistake? The only mistake taking me out of world-class territory
was that I didn't think to beaver XG! XG thought that my not beavering
was a greater mistake than its own double.
On 1/25/2022 6:45 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I totally agree with all moves to preserve rare species. However, I do think thatThey may also be more common than is frequently supposed.
beavers might be more frequent than is commonly supposed.
I thought I played an excellent game against XG but, in fact, my PR was around 9.0Interesting. Below is a variant that XG 3-ply thinks is a simple take
My mistake? The only mistake taking me out of world-class territory
was that I didn't think to beaver XG! XG thought that my not beavering
was a greater mistake than its own double.
but that a rollout deems to be a beaver.
XGID=aB-CBABAb---AA-B--bbcbab--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| X O X | | X X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 52.08% (G:27.77% B:2.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.92% (G:15.27% B:0.30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.24% (G:29.07% B:2.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.76% (G:15.37% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.187, Double=+0.416
Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.178
Double/Beaver: -0.198 (-0.020)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.178)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.7%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (-0.188..-0.168)
Confidence Double: ± 0.042 (-0.241..-0.156)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
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