XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------abbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------abbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

Hitting wins more gammons, but is it worth the risk of leaving return
shots from the bar? In this position, XG thinks so, because O's
offensive position has some weaknesses. But see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2 eq:+0.290
Player: 58.72% (G:37.18% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.28% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.277..+0.303) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1 eq:+0.212 (-0.078)
Player: 58.67% (G:24.96% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 41.33% (G:5.18% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.202..+0.222) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------bbbba--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 eq:+0.145
Player: 56.27% (G:24.95% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 43.73% (G:5.39% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.136..+0.155) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 3/2 eq:+0.109 (-0.037)
Player: 55.24% (G:24.02% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 44.76% (G:6.20% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.098..+0.119) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2 eq:+0.099 (-0.046)
Player: 52.88% (G:34.56% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 47.12% (G:9.95% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.087..+0.112) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 3/2 eq:+0.090 (-0.055)
Player: 54.97% (G:23.61% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.03% (G:6.44% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.080..+0.099) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----bCE-a-B--Da--bbcbb--A-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 9:11:13 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----bCE-a-B--Da--bbcbb--A-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Everything about this position calls for a safe play by the usual (Magriel) criteria, so the question is which is safest, to hit or not. Or maybe this is not the right position to even apply those criteria.
This doesn't seem like a position where the race and gaining minimal ground by hitting are even a remote consideration.
Reasons to hit that I can think of are to disconnect O's checkers, slow her formation of the prime, and maybe to create a tempo problem for O. I don't think giving a direct shot to the opponent in our home board could be characterized as a tempo play.
Making the prime by slotting the back and covering looks difficult for O without breaking the anchor. So I'd be left with disconnecting O's checkers. If our checkers on the 10 point were one or two pips closer to home I'd feel better about how things
would go in the outfield. Right now they don't serve as a great stepping stone for the midpoint, and I think there will be more blots for O to pick up. Sending white backward might actually give her more opportunities in the outfield if she doesn't hit
our home board blot. So I would play "safest" with no hit on the way in. 13/7/2.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----bCE-a-B--Da--bbcbb--A-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

I was surprised that XG favored the bold play here, since Magriel's
criteria seem to suggest safe play. I think the key point is that
X's straggler is in a lot of trouble, and X needs some counterplay.
Hitting is the only counterplay this roll affords him; if he plays
passively, then he's probably just going to get slowly crushed.

Even if X had a blot on his 1pt, XG thinks it's a close decision
(see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/8* 8/2 eq:-0.461
Player: 29.95% (G:7.25% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 70.05% (G:23.69% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.469..-0.453) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq:-0.535 (-0.074)
Player: 26.56% (G:5.80% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 73.44% (G:21.67% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.544..-0.526) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 13/8* eq:-0.550 (-0.089)
Player: 27.90% (G:6.73% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 72.10% (G:26.78% B:1.57%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.559..-0.542) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A--bCD-a-B--Da--bbcbb--A-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq:-0.562
Player: 25.48% (G:5.97% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 74.52% (G:21.88% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.568..-0.557) - [63.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8* 8/2 eq:-0.564 (-0.002)
Player: 27.70% (G:6.61% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 72.30% (G:27.28% B:1.39%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.571..-0.557) - [33.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/1 eq:-0.569 (-0.006)
Player: 25.61% (G:6.13% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 74.39% (G:23.11% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.574..-0.563) - [2.9%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---dbdB-----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 9:14:45 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---dbdB-----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Tempting, but I think it's winnable playing safe given the 26 point lead. Are there enough gammons in there to make attacking a worthwhile venture? Possibly, but I'm guessing no.

13/7

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---dbdB-----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

I didn't like risking my race lead by giving X a double shot from the
bar, but a stronger board and 11 checkers in the zone cover over a
multitude of sins. See the variant below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/4* eq:+0.411
Player: 56.91% (G:23.60% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 43.09% (G:6.97% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.399..+0.424) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.307 (-0.104)
Player: 58.08% (G:14.23% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:5.11% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.292..+0.323) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---cbcBb----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.181
Player: 54.77% (G:11.40% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 45.23% (G:4.93% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.169..+0.192) - [95.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/4* eq:+0.164 (-0.017)
Player: 51.27% (G:19.70% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.73% (G:9.03% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.148..+0.180) - [4.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:54:22 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---dbdB-----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
I didn't like risking my race lead by giving X a double shot from the
bar, but a stronger board and 11 checkers in the zone cover over a
multitude of sins. See the variant below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/4* eq:+0.411
Player: 56.91% (G:23.60% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 43.09% (G:6.97% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.399..+0.424) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.307 (-0.104)
Player: 58.08% (G:14.23% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:5.11% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.292..+0.323) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A-BaCBB--b-bC---cbcBb----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.181
Player: 54.77% (G:11.40% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 45.23% (G:4.93% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.169..+0.192) - [95.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/4* eq:+0.164 (-0.017)
Player: 51.27% (G:19.70% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.73% (G:9.03% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.148..+0.180) - [4.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

You can't look at it as a double shot. While we'd rather not be hit at all of course, if we get hit on the ace point, meh, bfd. We motor on and hope to find a clean entering four from the bar, and we'll take a clean entering five.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/25/2023 5:36 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

You can't look at it as a double shot. While we'd rather not be hit at all of course, if we get hit on the ace point, meh, bfd. We motor on and hope to find a clean entering four from the bar, and we'll take a clean entering five.

Your comment suggested to me the variant below. XG still
prefers to hit, but the equity difference is closer.

XGID=--BAaCBB--b-bC---dbdB-----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/4* eq:+0.354
Player: 55.60% (G:23.34% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 44.40% (G:7.08% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.346..+0.362) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.305 (-0.049)
Player: 58.06% (G:14.48% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 41.94% (G:4.88% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.295..+0.316) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:15:53 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

I'm thinking if you hit and O comes in on the one point, you end up with some more potential difficulties bearing in, on top of the 8 immediate hits O will have to steal the game. I would play safe.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:15:53 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

The obvious variant.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

If we hit, then there's a choice between covering with 8/2 and keeping
the five-prime with 13/7. What can go wrong if we hit? We could get
hit back, and then while we're dancing, O escapes. Covering 8/2
reduces the immediate return shots, but keeping the five-prime is more important, since it significantly increases the chances that O will
collapse her board.

But should we hit at all? We could play safe with 8/4 8/2. What can
go wrong then? The race is then even. O can probably hang on to her
anchor while her blot saunters around the board. Meanwhile, we might
leave at least an indirect shot and get hit. Or there might be no
hitting and we might lose the race.

According to the rollout, hitting 13/9* 13/7 is better. The variant I
had prepared is similar to Stick's in that it gives O a little more time
to win the priming battle, should a priming battle emerge.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 13/9* eq:+0.487
Player: 74.94% (G:12.54% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 25.06% (G:6.35% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.481..+0.493) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.434 (-0.053)
Player: 73.20% (G:4.93% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 26.80% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.429..+0.438) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9* 8/2 eq:+0.287 (-0.199)
Player: 69.90% (G:10.13% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 30.10% (G:15.90% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.283..+0.292) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--AbCBCBBa---B-----cbbcb--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 109 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.487
Player: 75.88% (G:4.93% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 24.12% (G:1.33% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.483..+0.491) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 13/9* eq:+0.472 (-0.015)
Player: 74.39% (G:12.47% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 25.61% (G:6.51% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.464..+0.480) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBBCCB--A-----bbbbcBba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O O |
| O O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBBCCB--A-----bbbbcBba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O O |
| O O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

XG regards every play here to be at least a double whopper, except
for the hit-and-split play of 21/15 7/2*.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 7/2* eq:+0.265
Player: 58.44% (G:19.42% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 41.56% (G:19.63% B:2.85%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.257..+0.274) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/1 eq:+0.026 (-0.239)
Player: 51.34% (G:8.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 48.66% (G:6.37% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.015..+0.037) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/2* eq:-0.020 (-0.285)
Player: 49.11% (G:14.07% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 50.89% (G:10.11% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.031..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)